20 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Al-Nassr vs NEOM Pro League prediction & result

King Saud University Stadium, Riyadh
Referee: F. Al Balawi
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Al-Nassr 1-0 NEOM.

Before kick-off the model made it 57% Al-Nassr, 24% draw, 19% NEOM — fair odds of 1.75, 4.17 and 5.26.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al-Nassr at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al-Nassr97%Draw3%NEOM0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

28'
Mohammed Al-Dossari
32'
Georgios Masouras
•Joao Felix
45+3'
45+5'
Mohammed Al-Burayk
⚽Cristiano Ronaldo (pen)
45+6'
56'
Mohannad Abu Taha
57'
🔁Abbas Al Hassanout: Valentín Vada
57'
🔁Khalil Al-Absiout: Georgios Masouras
⚽Joao Felixassist: Angelo Borges
61'
Samu Costa
63'
🔁Angelo Borgesout: Abdullah Al-Hamdan
72'
76'
🔁Mohammed Al-Dossariout: Haroune Camara
76'
🔁Mohannad Abu Tahaout: Khalifah Al-Dawsari
77'
🔁Abdulmalik Al-Oyayariout: Faisal Al-Ghamdi
🔁Ayman Yahyaout: Awad Aman
81'
🔁Joao Felixout: Sami Al-Najei
90+1'
🔁Sadio Manéout: Saad Haqawi
90+1'

Match stats — Al-Nassr vs NEOM

58%Possession42%
17Shots7
2On target1
3Corners1
2.37xG0.45

Goals against chances

Al-Nassr1 from 2.37 xGless than the chances were worth
NEOM0 from 0.45 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al-Nassr 4-2-3-1
  • 24BentoG
  • 12Nawaf BoushalD
  • 5Abdulelah Al AmriD
  • 26Íñigo MartínezD
  • 23Ayman YahyaD
  • 11Samú CostaM
  • 17Abdullah Al KhaibariM
  • 20ÂngeloM
  • 79João FélixM
  • 10S. ManéM
  • 7Cristiano RonaldoF
Substitutes
  • 14Sami Al NajiM
  • 9Abdullah Al HamdanF
  • 22Abdulhadi Al AlwanG
  • 6Saad Al NasserD
  • 70Awad AmanD
  • 60Saad HaqawiF
  • 50Majed QasheeshD
  • 46Yassine Gays Munsif Sallem
  • 8Hayder AbdulkareemM
Coach: A. Postecoglou
NEOM 3-4-3
  • 1M. BułkaG
  • 55Muhammad Al DosariD
  • 44N. ZézéD
  • 5M. SarrD
  • 2Mohammed Al BuraykM
  • 15Abdulmalik Al OyayariM
  • 6A. Al HassanM
  • 19Mohannad Abu TahaM
  • 14Khalil Al AbsiF
  • 91A. LacazetteF
  • 10S. BenrahmaF
Substitutes
  • 23V. VadaM
  • 4Khalifah Al DawsariD
  • 8Faisal Al GhamdiM
  • 75Khalid Al RammahD
  • 77Muhannad Al SaadF
  • 70Haroune CamaraF
  • 33Abdulrahman DagririG
  • 27Islam HawsawiD
  • 7G. MasourasF
Coach: C. Galtier

Form going into Al-Nassr vs NEOM

Al-Nassr

Pro League

  • W3-0Al Diriyah9 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Al Khaleej Saihat12 September 2026

NEOM

Pro League

  • L0-1Al-Ettifaq17 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Al-Hazm10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Saudi Arabia Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Al-Nassr119112811+1728
5NEOM127141810+822

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Al-Nassr vs NEOM

  • 7 March 2026Al-Nassr 1–0 NEOMPro League
  • 8 November 2025NEOM 1–3 Al-NassrPro League

Leading scorers: Al-Nassr and NEOM

Al-Nassr

GoalsAssists

  • Cristiano Ronaldo80
  • Ângelo53

NEOM

GoalsAssists

  • A. Lacazette72

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al-Nassr beat NEOM 1–0. The model had made a win for Al-Nassr its most likely outcome, at 57%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Joao Felix 61' for Al-Nassr. On expected goals it finished 2.37–0.45.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al-Nassr a 89.8% chance to finish in the top four: 92.6% after a win, 88.1% after a draw, 84.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 92.6%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.

For NEOM the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 10.0% going in: 15.0% after a win, 9.6% after a draw, 7.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.9%, 2.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Al-Nassr v NEOM has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 50% / 26% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 57% / 24% / 19%: the biggest move is Al-Nassr's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Al-Nassr win57%▲ +7
  2. Draw24%▼ −2
  3. NEOM win19%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.