Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Ararat-Armenia 0-4 AZ Alkmaar.
Before kick-off the model made it 13% Ararat-Armenia, 21% draw, 66% AZ Alkmaar — fair odds of 7.69, 4.76 and 1.52.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
AZ Alkmaar at 66%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 98João BravimG
- 2Hugo OliveiraD
- 43Bruno WilsonD
- 47A. MalisD
- 16E. GrigoryanD
- 8J. BalantaM
- 17M. CarlierM
- 77A. SerobyanM
- 10A. AmbartsumyanM
- 7Z. ShaghoyanM
- 91Sandro LimaF
- 25A. NdourF
- 9A. EloyanM
- 5Luís FelipeD
- 14Bruno PereiraD
- 19K. MuradyanM
- 1A. NersesyanG
- 70B. OliveiraM
- 95FrançaF
- 28J. De BusserG
- 2S. MaikumaD
- 4L. SchoutenD
- 29W. HoedtD
- 34M. de WitD
- 6P. KoopmeinersM
- 17V. ByskovM
- 21D. KwakmanM
- 7Weslley PatatiF
- 18B. KovacsF
- 24A. OufkirF
- 75H. de WitM
- 14C. StengsM
- 12H. VerhulstG
- 1R. Owusu-OduroG
- 9M. MeerdinkF
- 30D. KasiusD
- 31R. IchiharaD
- 22E. DijkstraD
- 11R. DaalF
Form going into Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar
Ararat-Armenia
UEFA Europa League
- L1-3away to Jagiellonia15 October 2026
- L1-4Sparta Praha16 September 2026
AZ Alkmaar
UEFA Europa League
- W2-1Hapoel Beer Sheva15 October 2026
- L0-1away to Sunderland16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 0 |
| 14 | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Ararat-Armenia and AZ Alkmaar
Ararat-Armenia
No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
AZ Alkmaar
GoalsAssists
- M. Meerdink30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
AZ Alkmaar won 4–0 at Ararat-Armenia. The model had made a win for AZ Alkmaar its most likely outcome, at 66%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Valdemar Byskov Andreasen 21' for AZ Alkmaar, Weslley Pinto Batista 27' for AZ Alkmaar, Weslley Pinto Batista 76' for AZ Alkmaar, Mexx Meerdink 79' for AZ Alkmaar. On expected goals it finished 0.42–1.70.
How the call on Ararat-Armenia v AZ Alkmaar has moved
First published on 8 Oct at 12% / 20% / 68% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 13% / 21% / 66%: the biggest move is AZ Alkmaar's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Ararat-Armenia win13%▲ +1
- Draw21%▲ +1
- AZ Alkmaar win66%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.