22 October 2026, 14:30 UTC

Al Shahaniya vs Al Sadd Stars League prediction & result

Ahmed bin Ali Stadium, Lai Yang
Full time0 – 4

Final score: Al Shahaniya 0-4 Al Sadd.

Before kick-off the model made it 18% Al Shahaniya, 17% draw, 65% Al Sadd — fair odds of 5.56, 5.88 and 1.54.

Most likely scoreline: 1-3.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al Sadd at 65%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al Shahaniya0%Draw1%Al Sadd99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

21'
⚽Akram Afifassist: Giovani Henrique Amorim da Silva
28'
⚽Roberto Firminoassist: Giovani Henrique Amorim da Silva
45'
🔁Tarek Salmanout: Pedro Miguel
🔁Bahaa Ellethyout: Khaled Muftah
45'
🔁Abdullah Alsulaitiout: Yousef·Hani Ballan
45'
51'
⚽Akram Afifassist: Cláudio Luiz Rodrigues Parise Leonel
🔁Sven van Beekout: Ali Qadry
53'
60'
🔁Cláudio Luiz Rodrigues Parise Leonelout: Mostafa Mashaal
68'
🔁Mohamed Manaiout: Hassan Al-Haydos
70'
⚽Mostafa Mashaal
77'
🔁Younes El Hannachout: Abdullah Badr Al-Yazidi
78'
🔁Giovani Henrique Amorim da Silvaout: Mohamed Waad
🔁Moameen Mutasemout: Adel Al Sulimane
79'
🔁Mohamed Abdelfatah Suragout: Lucas Gabriel Ribeiro Firmo
79'

Match stats — Al Shahaniya vs Al Sadd

34%Possession66%
2Shots25
1On target13
0Corners9
0.6xG2.14

Goals against chances

Al Shahaniya0 from 0.60 xGless than the chances were worth
Al Sadd4 from 2.14 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al Shahaniya 4-2-3-1
  • 99Shehab EllethyG
  • 19Abdulla Al SulaitiD
  • 22S. van BeekD
  • 31Z. ŠarlijaD
  • 3Bahaa EllithiD
  • 4Mohamed SayyarM
  • 6Álvaro SanzM
  • 21Mohamed SuragM
  • 88Moameen MutasemM
  • 11Jawad El JemiliM
  • 9A. TraoréF
Substitutes
  • 2A. MohamedD
  • 17Abdulrahman Fahmi MoustafaF
  • 23Mohamed SaeedG
  • 18A. Al SulimaneM
  • 14Salah Alawi Al YahriM
  • 7A. MussedF
  • 81Lucas Gabriel Ribeiro FirmoF
  • 20Ali QadryM
  • 8A. MeherziM
Coach: Younes Ali
Al Sadd 4-2-3-1
  • 22Meshaal BarshamG
  • 3Y. El HannachD
  • 5Tarek SalmanD
  • 16Boualem KhoukhiD
  • 6Paulo OtávioD
  • 4M. CamaraM
  • 33ClaudinhoM
  • 11GiovaniM
  • 17Mohamed Al ManaiM
  • 30Akram AfifM
  • 9Roberto FirminoF
Substitutes
  • 13Abdullah Al YazidiF
  • 8GuilhermeM
  • 14Mostafa MeshaalM
  • 7Mohammed WaadM
  • 64Moaz ElwadiaD
  • 2Pedro MiguelD
  • 31Yousef Abdulla BaliadehG
  • 23Hashim AliF
  • 1Saad Al SheebG
Coach: R. Lucescu

Form going into Al Shahaniya vs Al Sadd

Al Shahaniya

Stars League

  • L0-6Al-Arabi SC16 October 2026
  • W1-0Lusail City10 October 2026

Al Sadd

Stars League

  • L2-3Al-Duhail SC18 October 2026
  • L2-3Al-Arabi SC9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Stars League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Al Shahaniya93151221-910
3Al Sadd96033418+1618

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Al Shahaniya vs Al Sadd

  • 5 February 2026Al Sadd 4–0 Al ShahaniyaStars League
  • 28 October 2025Al Sadd 1–2 Al ShahaniyaQSL Cup
  • 12 September 2025Al Shahaniya 1–0 Al SaddStars League
  • 7 March 2025Al Shahaniya 0–5 Al SaddStars League
  • 18 October 2024Al Sadd 4–2 Al ShahaniyaStars League
  • 24 April 2023Al Sadd 5–1 Al ShahaniyaEmir Cup

Leading scorers: Al Shahaniya and Al Sadd

Al Shahaniya

GoalsAssists

  • A. Traoré40

Al Sadd

GoalsAssists

  • Akram Afif86
  • Roberto Firmino84
  • Giovani33

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al Sadd won 4–0 at Al Shahaniya. The model had made a win for Al Sadd its most likely outcome, at 65%, so the call held; the score it named was 3–1. The goals: Akram Afif 21' for Al Sadd, Roberto Firmino 28' for Al Sadd, Akram Afif 51' for Al Sadd, Mostafa Mashaal 70' for Al Sadd. On expected goals it finished 0.60–2.14.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al Shahaniya a 17.9% chance to finish in the bottom two: 4.1% after a win, 15.5% after a draw, 21.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.3%, 3.4 points higher than before the match.

For Al Sadd the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 83.4% going in: 89.8% after a win, 77.4% after a draw, 66.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 89.8%, 6.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Stars League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Al Shahaniya v Al Sadd has moved

First published on 8 Oct at 20% / 18% / 62% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 18% / 17% / 65%: the biggest move is Al Sadd's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Al Shahaniya win18%▼ −2
  2. Draw17%▼ −1
  3. Al Sadd win65%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.