19 October 2026, 15:05 UTC

Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Pro League prediction & result

King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Buraidah
Referee: Shukri Hussain Al Hunfush
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Al-Fayha 2-3 Al-Ahli Jeddah.

Before kick-off the model made it 16% Al-Fayha, 22% draw, 62% Al-Ahli Jeddah — fair odds of 6.25, 4.55 and 1.61.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al-Ahli Jeddah at 62%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al-Fayha0%Draw3%Al-Ahli Jeddah97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

14'
🔁Ziyad Al-Johaniout: Artem Bondarenko
Alfa Semedo
19'
⚽Hugo Mouraassist: Ahmed Bamasud
45'
45+3'
⚽Artem Bondarenkoassist: Saad Yaslam Balobaid
59'
⚽Firas Al-Buraikan (pen)
⚽Jason Remeseiro
65'
70'
⚽Artem Bondarenkoassist: Valentin Atangana Edoa
80'
🔁Saeed Baattiaout: Mohammed Abdulrahman Yousef
🔁Hugo Mouraout: Mansor Al Beshe
80'
80'
🔁Matheus Gonçalves Martinsout: Meshal Al Materai
🔁Mohammed Al-Baqawiout: Rayan Enad
88'
🔁Mokher Al-Rashidiout: Fahad Al Hubayshi
89'
🔁Yago Souzaout: Nawaf Al-Harthi
89'
90+4'
🔁Eduard Spertsyanout: Mohammed Sulaiman
90+4'
🔁Valentin Atangana Edoaout: Makaya Ibrahima Diaby

Match stats — Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah

43%Possession57%
9Shots15
2On target8
2Corners1
0.7xG4.18

Goals against chances

Al-Fayha2 from 0.70 xGmore than the chances were worth
Al-Ahli Jeddah3 from 4.18 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al-Fayha 5-3-2
  • 52O. MosqueraG
  • 22Mohammed Al BaqawiD
  • 2Mukhir Al RashidiD
  • 21Ziyad Al SahafiD
  • 25O. ColleyD
  • 24Ahmed BamasudD
  • 6Ali Al HussainM
  • 5Hugo MouraM
  • 40Yago SantanaM
  • 30Alfa SemedoF
  • 23JasonF
Substitutes
  • 14Mansor Al BesheM
  • 47Mohammed Al DowaishD
  • 1Abdulraoof Al-DeqeelG
  • 67Danyal Al HabeebM
  • 7Nawaf Al-HarthiM
  • 27S. Al HarbiF
  • 43Fahad Majed AlhubayshiM
  • 9Malek Al AbdulmanamF
  • 77R. EnadF
Coach: Fábio Carille
Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-2-3-1
  • 1Abdulrahman Al SanbiG
  • 15Saeed BaattiaD
  • 28M. DemiralD
  • 3IbañezD
  • 31Saad YaslamD
  • 6V. Atangana EdoaM
  • 30Ziyad Al JohaniM
  • 7TrincãoM
  • 8E. SpertsyanM
  • 20Matheus GonçalvesM
  • 9Feras Al BrikanF
Substitutes
  • 29Mohammed YousefD
  • 11Meshal Al MutairiF
  • 72Salman Al-JadaniG
  • 62Abdullah AbdoG
  • 5Mohammed BakorD
  • 19A. BondarenkoM
  • 4Makaya Ibrahima DiabyM
  • 46Rayane HamidouD
  • 21Abdullah RadifF
Coach: M. Pusic

Form going into Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah

Al-Fayha

Pro League

  • L0-2away to Al Khaleej Saihat15 October 2026
  • D1-1Al Riyadh11 October 2026

Al-Ahli Jeddah

Pro League

  • W4-0away to Al-Fateh9 October 2026
  • W3-1Al-Hazm11 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Saudi Arabia Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Al-Fayha122551620-411
6Al-Ahli Jeddah117042819+921

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah

  • 8 April 2026Al-Fayha 1–1 Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
  • 30 December 2025Al-Ahli Jeddah 2–0 Al-FayhaPro League
  • 18 April 2025Al-Ahli Jeddah 5–0 Al-FayhaPro League
  • 22 November 2024Al-Fayha 0–1 Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
  • 27 May 2024Al-Ahli Jeddah 1–0 Al-FayhaPro League
  • 14 December 2023Al-Fayha 0–4 Al-Ahli JeddahPro League

Leading scorers: Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah

Al-Fayha

No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.

Al-Ahli Jeddah

GoalsAssists

  • I. Toney132
  • Trincão63

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al-Ahli Jeddah won 3–2 at Al-Fayha. The model had made a win for Al-Ahli Jeddah its most likely outcome, at 62%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Hugo Moura 45' for Al-Fayha, Artem Bondarenko 45+3' for Al-Ahli Jeddah, Firas Al-Buraikan (penalty) 59' for Al-Ahli Jeddah, Jason Remeseiro 65' for Al-Fayha, Artem Bondarenko 70' for Al-Ahli Jeddah. On expected goals it finished 0.70–4.18.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al-Fayha a 30.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 21.1% after a win, 28.2% after a draw, 33.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 33.3%, 2.4 points higher than before the match.

For Al-Ahli Jeddah the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 77.1% going in: 79.6% after a win, 73.0% after a draw, 70.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 79.6%, 2.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Al-Fayha v Al-Ahli Jeddah has moved

First published on 5 Oct at 23% / 25% / 52% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 16% / 22% / 62%: the biggest move is Al-Ahli Jeddah's chance of winning, up 10 points.

  1. Al-Fayha win16%▼ −7
  2. Draw22%▼ −3
  3. Al-Ahli Jeddah win62%▲ +10

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.