19 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC Pro League prediction & result

Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Riyadh
Referee: Khalid Al-Turais
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Al Shabab 2-2 Al-Faisaly FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Al Shabab, 27% draw, 31% Al-Faisaly FC — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al Shabab at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al Shabab5%Draw91%Al-Faisaly FC4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Josh Brownhill
7'
⚽Josh Brownhillassist: Roger Martínez
30'
38'
⚽Andrei Girottoassist: Jaime Seoane
Tin Jedvaj
45+4'
🔁Daniel Podenceout: Awad Haidar Amer Al Nashri
45'
45'
🔁Jaime Seoaneout: Christian Bassogog
Dhari Sayyar Al Anazi
54'
Awad Haidar Amer Al Nashri
57'
58'
Abdullah Al-Mogren
64'
🔁Abdulaziz Al-Bishiout: Eid Al-Muwallad
64'
🔁Abdullah Al-Mogrenout: Theo Bongonda
67'
🔁Abdullah Subaytout: Mohammed Jahfali
74'
🔁Mohammed Ali Al Shanqitiout: Abdulrahman Al Shereaf
🔁Abdullah Matuqout: Abdulrahman Al-Oboud
76'
79'
⚽Alexandre Mendyassist: Abdulrahman Al Shereaf
90+6'
Mohammed Jahfali

Match stats — Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC

48%Possession52%
17Shots11
7On target4
6Corners3
1.3xG1.5

Goals against chances

Al Shabab2 from 1.30 xGmore than the chances were worth
Al-Faisaly FC2 from 1.50 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al Shabab 4-4-2
  • 1M. DiawG
  • 17Mohammed Fuad Ibrahim Al ThaniD
  • 3M. BarryD
  • 4T. JedvajD
  • 21Dhari Al AnaziD
  • 37A. MatuqM
  • 8J. BrownhillM
  • 29Y. AdliM
  • 11Daniel PodenceM
  • 49Ricardo MathiasF
  • 9Roger MartínezF
Substitutes
  • 5Ali MakkiD
  • 99Hamad Al-KhorayefF
  • 27Abdullah Al HawsawiD
  • 23Abdulaziz RahmaG
  • 40Ali Al AsmariM
  • 6Awad Al NashriM
  • 24Abdulrahman Al ObudF
  • 74Abdulaziz HadhoodF
  • 97Mourad KhodariF
Coach: T. Letsch
Al-Faisaly FC 3-4-3
  • 1Fernando PachecoG
  • 87A. BaD
  • 4A. SeckD
  • 5Andrei GirottoD
  • 2Yaseen BarnawiM
  • 8FlávioM
  • 14Abdullah AlmuqrinM
  • 50Mohammed Ali Al ShanqitiM
  • 24Abdulaziz Al BishiF
  • 19Alexandre MendyF
  • 20Jaime SeoaneF
Substitutes
  • 26Mohammed Al HasawiG
  • 6Eid Al MuwalladM
  • 77A. Al ShereafM
  • 10T. BongondaF
  • 88Saud HaddadD
  • 70Mohammed JahfaliD
  • 13C. BassogogF
  • 47Faisal Mohammed Ibrahim Al FahadF
  • 3Khalid Al HarbiD
Coach: G. Solinas

Form going into Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC

Al Shabab

Pro League

  • W3-0Al Taawon11 October 2026
  • D0-0Al-Fayha12 September 2026

Al-Faisaly FC

Pro League

  • W3-2Al Kholood15 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Saudi Arabia Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Al Shabab113532015+514
15Al-Faisaly FC122461324-1110

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC

  • 12 May 2022Al Shabab 1–0 Al-Faisaly FCPro League
  • 20 November 2021Al-Faisaly FC 0–0 Al ShababPro League
  • 23 May 2021Al-Faisaly FC 1–5 Al ShababPro League
  • 19 January 2021Al Shabab 1–1 Al-Faisaly FCPro League
  • 7 February 2020Al-Faisaly FC 2–1 Al ShababPro League
  • 30 August 2019Al Shabab 0–0 Al-Faisaly FCPro League

Leading scorers: Al Shabab and Al-Faisaly FC

Al Shabab

GoalsAssists

  • Y. Carrasco61

Al-Faisaly FC

GoalsAssists

  • Alexandre Mendy51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al Shabab and Al-Faisaly FC drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Al Shabab at 42% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Josh Brownhill 7' for Al Shabab, Josh Brownhill 30' for Al Shabab, Andrei Girotto 38' for Al-Faisaly FC, Alexandre Mendy 79' for Al-Faisaly FC. On expected goals it finished 1.30–1.50.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al Shabab a 17.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 12.5% after a win, 18.0% after a draw, 21.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 18.0%, 0.9 points higher than before the match.

For Al-Faisaly FC the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 20.9% going in: 14.4% after a win, 21.3% after a draw, 24.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 21.3%.

Read from our Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Al Shabab v Al-Faisaly FC has moved

First published on 5 Oct at 40% / 29% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 42% / 27% / 31%: the biggest move is Al Shabab's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Al Shabab win42%▲ +2
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Al-Faisaly FC win31%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.