19 October 2026, 12:00 UTC

Mes Shahr-e Babak vs Persepolis FC Persian Gulf Pro League prediction & result

Full time0 – 3

Final score: Mes Shahr-e Babak 0-3 Persepolis FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 22% Mes Shahr-e Babak, 24% draw, 54% Persepolis FC — fair odds of 4.55, 4.17 and 1.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Persepolis FC at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Mes Shahr-e Babak0%Draw1%Persepolis FC99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

M. Tarhani
21'
27'
M. Tikdari
33'
⚽T. Bifoumaassist: O. Urunov
🔁Z. Niknafsout: A. Enayatzadeh
37'
🔁A. Ghezelout: A. Karbalaei
46'
46'
🔁O. Urunovout: A. Jalali
68'
⚽A. Alipour (pen)assist: A. Alipour
🔁G. Pouriaout: M. Jannia
69'
74'
⚽E. Majidassist: M. Mohebi
76'
🔁M. Zareout: D. Eiri
76'
🔁A. Alipourout: P. Shahrabadi
🔁M. J. Pouravazout: O. Nafez
78'
🔁M. Hasheminasabout: M. Sefid
78'
85'
🔁T. Bifoumaout: A. Mahmoudi
85'
🔁M. Tikdariout: M. Sadeghi
90+3'
⚽M. Sadeghiassist: M. Khodabandelou

Line-ups

Mes Shahr-e Babak
  • 1M. Ghavidel
  • 7M. J. Pouravaz
  • 6M. Raoufimanesh
  • 2M. Tarhani
  • 3M. Mohammadi
  • 71G. Pouria
  • 14Z. Niknafs
  • 8M. Tajik
  • 88M. Hasheminasab
  • 19A. Ghezel
  • 10A. Valizadeh
Substitutes
  • 5A. Enayatzadeh
  • 17A. Karbalaei
  • 24M. Jannia
  • 77M. Sefid
  • 79O. Nafez
Persepolis FC
  • 1P. Niazmand
  • 20E. Majid
  • 5H. Abarghouei
  • 4M. Zare
  • 8M. Tikdari
  • 10M. Mohebi
  • 66P. Pourali
  • 77M. Khodabandelou
  • 70O. Urunov
  • 9A. Alipour
  • 23T. Bifouma
Substitutes
  • 22A. Rafiei
  • 3A. Jalali
  • 89D. Eiri
  • 33D. Gera
  • 88M. Bakic
  • 99P. Latififar
  • 7M. Omri
  • 21P. Shahrabadi
  • 34A. Mahmoudi

Form going into Mes Shahr-e Babak vs Persepolis FC

Mes Shahr-e Babak

Persian Gulf Pro League

  • L1-2away to Foolad FC8 October 2026

Persepolis FC

Persian Gulf Pro League

  • D0-0away to Kheybar Khorramabad14 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Persian Gulf Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Mes Shahr-e Babak12057723-165
2Persepolis FC12723207+1323

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Mes Shahr-e Babak and Persepolis FC

Mes Shahr-e Babak

No player in Persian Gulf Pro League's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Persepolis FC

GoalsAssists

  • I. Sergeev10

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Persepolis FC won 3–0 at Mes Shahr-e Babak. The model had made a win for Persepolis FC its most likely outcome, at 54%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: T. Bifouma 33' for Persepolis FC, E. Majid 74' for Persepolis FC, M. Sadeghi 90+3' for Persepolis FC. Sent off: M. Tarhani (Mes Shahr-e Babak) 21'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Mes Shahr-e Babak a 86.2% chance to finish in the bottom four: 62.2% after a win, 87.7% after a draw, 93.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 93.8%, 7.6 points higher than before the match.

For Persepolis FC the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 61.6% going in: 75.1% after a win, 47.4% after a draw, 33.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 75.1%, 13.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Persian Gulf Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Mes Shahr-e Babak v Persepolis FC has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 25% / 25% / 50% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 22% / 24% / 54%: the biggest move is Persepolis FC's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Mes Shahr-e Babak win22%▼ −3
  2. Draw24%▼ −1
  3. Persepolis FC win54%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.