19 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Al-Hilal vs Al-Hazm Pro League prediction & result

Kingdom Arena, Riyadh
Referee: Kirill Levnikov
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Al-Hilal 1-0 Al-Hazm.

Before kick-off the model made it 75% Al-Hilal, 16% draw, 9% Al-Hazm — fair odds of 1.33, 6.25 and 11.11.

Most likely scoreline: 3-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al-Hilal at 75%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al-Hilal98%Draw2%Al-Hazm0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

23'
🔁Aboubacar·Diakiteout: Ahmed Al-Shamrani
42'
Ahmed Al-Nakhli
45'
Ahmed Al-Shamrani
•Ollie Watkins
69'
70'
🔁Afimico Pululuout: Amir Saâyoud
70'
🔁Sofiane Bendebkaout: Mohammed Al Hamdani
🔁Theo Hernandezout: Moteb Al-Harbi
76'
🔁Hassan Al-Tambaktiout: Sultan Mandash
76'
87'
🔁Abdulaziz Al-Harbiout: Mohammed Eissa Saleh Al-Jamaan Al-Yami
88'
🔁Abdurahman Al-Dakheelout: Abdullah Al Shanqiti
⚽Gabriel Martinelliassist: Mohammed Mahzari
89'
Gabriel Martinelli
90'
🔁Crysencio Summervilleout: Salem Al-Dawsari
90+2'
🔁Mohamed Kannoout: Nasser Al-Dawsari
90+2'
🔁Gabriel Martinelliout: Ali Lajami
90+2'

Match stats — Al-Hilal vs Al-Hazm

63%Possession37%
21Shots5
4On target2
10Corners0
3.13xG0.52

Goals against chances

Al-Hilal1 from 3.13 xGless than the chances were worth
Al-Hazm0 from 0.52 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al-Hilal 4-1-4-1
  • 37Y. BounouG
  • 2Mohammed Mater Mohsin MahzariD
  • 87Hassan TambaktiD
  • 3K. KoulibalyD
  • 19T. HernándezD
  • 8Rúben NevesM
  • 7Gabriel MartinelliM
  • 22S. Milinković-SavićM
  • 28Mohamed KannoM
  • 38C. SummervilleM
  • 11O. WatkinsF
Substitutes
  • 77Nawaf Al HabashiM
  • 29Salem Al DawsariM
  • 6Nasser Al DawsariM
  • 24Moteb Al HarbiD
  • 18Murad Al HawsawiM
  • 33Mohammed Al OwaisG
  • 72S. DahalF
  • 78Ali LajamiD
  • 27Sultan MandashF
Coach: S. Inzaghi
Al-Hazm 5-4-1
  • 36J. StaněkG
  • 82Abdulaziz Al-HarbiD
  • 4Sultan TankerD
  • 34Abdulrahman Al-DakheelD
  • 3A. Ben HmidaD
  • 27Ahmed Al NakhliD
  • 28S. BendebkaM
  • 17Bonheur MugishaM
  • 24A. BahM
  • 29Aboubacar DiakiteM
  • 9Afimico PululuF
Substitutes
  • 77M. Al HamdaniF
  • 70Ahmed Al ShamraniM
  • 13Abdullah Al ShanqitiD
  • 11Waleed Al ShanqitiF
  • 95Jaser AteeqD
  • 10A. SayoudM
  • 88K. AbduljawadF
  • 23Ibrahim ZaidG
  • 5Mohammed IssaD
Coach: J. Kadri

Form going into Al-Hilal vs Al-Hazm

Al-Hilal

Pro League

  • W3-2Al-Ittihad10 October 2026
  • W6-0away to Al Taawon12 September 2026

Al-Hazm

Pro League

  • L2-3Al-Fateh15 October 2026
  • D1-1NEOM10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Saudi Arabia Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Al-Hilal111001329+2330
14Al-Hazm122461420-610

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Al-Hilal vs Al-Hazm

  • 2 May 2026Al-Hazm 0–3 Al-HilalPro League
  • 8 January 2026Al-Hilal 3–0 Al-HazmPro League
  • 11 May 2024Al-Hilal 4–1 Al-HazmPro League
  • 25 November 2023Al-Hazm 0–9 Al-HilalPro League
  • 30 October 2023Al-Hilal 3–0 Al-HazmKing's Cup
  • 26 February 2022Al-Hilal 2–0 Al-HazmPro League

Leading scorers: Al-Hilal and Al-Hazm

Al-Hilal

GoalsAssists

  • Gabriel Martinelli60
  • O. Watkins55
  • Rúben Neves53

Al-Hazm

No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al-Hilal beat Al-Hazm 1–0. The model had made a win for Al-Hilal its most likely outcome, at 75%, so the call held; the score it named was 3–0. The goal: Gabriel Martinelli 89' for Al-Hilal. On expected goals it finished 3.13–0.52.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al-Hilal these chances to win the league: 60.5% after a win, 52.2% after a draw, 45.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 60.5%.

For Al-Hazm the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 21.4% going in: 13.2% after a win, 18.2% after a draw, 22.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 22.3%, 0.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Al-Hilal v Al-Hazm has moved

First published on 5 Oct at 65% / 21% / 14% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 75% / 16% / 9%: the biggest move is Al-Hilal's chance of winning, up 10 points.

  1. Al-Hilal win75%▲ +10
  2. Draw16%▼ −5
  3. Al-Hazm win9%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.