19 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Manisa F.K. vs Muğlaspor 1. Lig prediction & result

Mumin Ozkasap Stadyumu, Manisa
Referee: Ayberk Demirbas
Full time3 – 4

Final score: Manisa F.K. 3-4 Muğlaspor.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Manisa F.K., 28% draw, 26% Muğlaspor — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Manisa F.K. at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Manisa F.K.0%Draw6%Muğlaspor94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

10'
⚽İ. Furat
12'
⚽Ibrahim Sissokoassist: Daniel Avramovski
32'
⚽Ibrahim Sissoko (pen)
32'
⚽Mamady·Diarra
🔁Osman Kahramanout: Noha Lemina
33'
⚽Julien Anziani (pen)
40'
⚽Yassine Benrahou
45+2'
56'
Yiğit Fidan
Yassine Benrahou
56'
🔁K. Yurdakulout: Firat İnal
59'
🔁Birama Toureout: Jonathan Lindseth
60'
62'
🔁Oguzhan Maturout: Ali·Barak
62'
🔁İ. Furatout: Korede Osundina
73'
🔁Ahmet Enginout: Bilal Ceylan
73'
🔁Ibrahim Sissokoout: Poyraz Yildirim
82'
🔁Buluthan Bulutout: Orhan Nahirci
Christophe Herelle
83'
84'
⚽Daniel Avramovskiassist: Mamady·Diarra
86'
Daniel Avramovski
86'
Luis Mago
⚽Julien Anziani (pen)
89'
90+2'
⚽Ali Kaan Guneren (pen)
90+7'
Mamady·Diarra

Match stats — Manisa F.K. vs Muğlaspor

53%Possession47%
13Shots13
7On target10
3Corners5
2.72xG2.37

Goals against chances

Manisa F.K.3 from 2.72 xGabout what the chances were worth
Muğlaspor4 from 2.37 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Manisa F.K. 4-4-2
  • 1V. KarakuşG
  • 22K. YurdakulD
  • 5C. HérelleD
  • 45Ada IbikD
  • 3O. KaynakD
  • 17Osman KahramanM
  • 60B. TouréM
  • 6A. ÇankayaM
  • 70A. VargasM
  • 20Y. BenrahouF
  • 23J. AnzianiF
Substitutes
  • 96B. TibukogluD
  • 10J. LindsethM
  • 11N. LeminaM
  • 2Yunus Emre KöseD
  • 21E. AkboğaM
  • 24Y. DursunM
  • 27Y. GürelerD
  • 4F. İnalD
  • 25A. SenF
Coach: Ahmet Pektaş
Muğlaspor 4-2-3-1
  • 17E. KılıçarslanG
  • 28A. EnginD
  • 88Yiğit FidanD
  • 44L. Del PinoD
  • 5O. MaturD
  • 23A. GünerenM
  • 20B. BulutM
  • 11M. DiarraM
  • 10D. AvramovskiM
  • 91İ. FuratM
  • 27I. SissokoF
Substitutes
  • 3A. BarakD
  • 7D. CamajF
  • 22B. CeylanD
  • 31Arel EkinciG
  • 30B. EkizM
  • 53Alihan KazmazD
  • 15O. NahırcıM
  • 13K. OsundinaF
  • 48O. SolM
Coach: Y. Koşukavak

Form going into Manisa F.K. vs Muğlaspor

Manisa F.K.

1. Lig

  • D1-1Esenler Erokspor15 October 2026

Muğlaspor

1. Lig

  • L0-3Bursaspor15 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Manisa F.K.143472124-313
11Muğlaspor144641825-718

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Manisa F.K. vs Muğlaspor

  • 29 October 2025Manisa F.K. 0–2 MuğlasporTürkiye Kupası

Leading scorers: Manisa F.K. and Muğlaspor

Manisa F.K.

GoalsAssists

  • J. Anziani81
  • C. Sylla72

Muğlaspor

GoalsAssists

  • M. Diarra41
  • Y. Uzunoglu41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Muğlaspor won 4–3 at Manisa F.K.. The model had leaned towards a win for Manisa F.K. at 46% and given a win for Muğlaspor 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: İ. Furat 10' for Muğlaspor, Ibrahim Sissoko 12' for Muğlaspor, Mamady·Diarra 32' for Muğlaspor, Julien Anziani (penalty) 40' for Manisa F.K., Yassine Benrahou 45+2' for Manisa F.K., Daniel Avramovski 84' for Muğlaspor, Julien Anziani (penalty) 89' for Manisa F.K.. Sent off: Luis Mago (Muğlaspor) 86'. On expected goals it finished 2.72–2.37.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Manisa F.K. a 21.9% chance to finish in the bottom four: 17.1% after a win, 23.3% after a draw, 28.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 28.1%, 6.2 points higher than before the match.

For Muğlaspor the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 23.0% going in: 17.0% after a win, 21.2% after a draw, 26.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.0%, 6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Manisa F.K. v Muğlaspor has moved

First published on 5 Oct at 39% / 30% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 46% / 28% / 26%: the biggest move is Manisa F.K.'s chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Manisa F.K. win46%▲ +7
  2. Draw28%▼ −2
  3. Muğlaspor win26%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.