22 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha Stars League prediction & result

Al Gharafa Stadium, Doha
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Al-Gharafa 2-2 Al Ahli Doha.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Al-Gharafa, 25% draw, 41% Al Ahli Doha — fair odds of 2.94, 4.00 and 2.44.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al Ahli Doha at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al-Gharafa95%Draw5%Al Ahli Doha0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Seydou Sanoassist: Ismaël Bennacer
13'
Amro Surag
22'
⚽Yacine Brahimiassist: Adam Ounas
36'
52'
⚽Erik Expósitoassist: Naïm Sliti
58'
🔁Ismaeel Mohammadout: Younis Hussein Abdelrahman
🔁Hassan Aladinout: Florinel Coman
59'
🔁Ismaël Bennacerout: Hyun-Soo Jang
65'
🔁Adam Ounasout: Abdulrahman Al-Rashidi
78'
78'
🔁Ghanem Al-Minhaliout: Luiz Junior
87'
🔁Robin Tihiout: Zinedine Sassi
87'
🔁Ayoub Amraouiout: Suhaib Gannan
87'
🔁Benjamin Bourigeaudout: Hamad Mansour
90+3'
⚽Naïm Slitiassist: Luiz Junior

Match stats — Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha

37%Possession63%
17Shots25
4On target10
6Corners13
1.49xG2.21

Goals against chances

Al-Gharafa2 from 1.49 xGmore than the chances were worth
Al Ahli Doha2 from 2.21 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al-Gharafa 4-2-3-1
  • 1Khalifa AbabacarG
  • 11Amro Abdelfatah Ali SuragD
  • 4S. SanoD
  • 6Dame TraoréD
  • 23Saifeldeen Hassan FadlallaD
  • 18Ayoub Al OuiM
  • 29F. DíazM
  • 96A. OunasM
  • 10I. BennacerM
  • 8Y. BrahimiM
  • 90A. HassanF
Substitutes
  • 49R. FaragallaM
  • 48Fahed Amro Abu HamdehM
  • 26Rayyan Al AliD
  • 2Abdulrahman Faiz Al RashidiD
  • 7F. ComanF
  • 24Hamad KahioutG
  • 16Jamil FriarkhM
  • 20Jang Hyun-SooD
  • 31A. KoneG
Coach: Pedro Martins
Al Ahli Doha 4-1-4-1
  • 13Mohamed LinglizG
  • 41Ahmed ReyedD
  • 16R. TihiD
  • 88A. AmraouiD
  • 12Ghanem Al MinhaliD
  • 33D. FettouhiM
  • 77Ismaeel MohammadM
  • 27B. BourigeaudM
  • 7J. DraxlerM
  • 23N. SlitiM
  • 10Erik ExpósitoF
Substitutes
  • 70Younis AbdelrahmanF
  • 18Jassem MohammedD
  • 53Saleh Ahmed QassemG
  • 20Hamad MansourM
  • 15Mohammed Abdulla Al-IshaqM
  • 6Luiz CearáM
  • 75Nasser Adil BabikerD
  • 11Suhaib GannanF
  • 49Z. SassiD
Coach: Borja Jiménez

Form going into Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha

Al-Gharafa

Stars League

  • D0-0Al-Rayyan SC18 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Al Wakrah8 October 2026

Al Ahli Doha

Stars League

  • L0-3Al Wakrah16 October 2026
  • W5-0Al-Sailiya10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Stars League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Al-Gharafa92341115-49
7Al Ahli Doha93331617-112

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha

  • 18 March 2026Al-Gharafa 1–4 Al Ahli DohaStars League
  • 25 October 2025Al Ahli Doha 1–3 Al-GharafaStars League
  • 22 January 2025Al-Gharafa 2–0 Al Ahli DohaStars League
  • 18 August 2024Al Ahli Doha 1–0 Al-GharafaStars League
  • 8 May 2024Al-Gharafa 4–3 Al Ahli DohaEmir Cup
  • 24 February 2024Al-Gharafa 1–2 Al Ahli DohaStars League

Leading scorers: Al-Gharafa and Al Ahli Doha

Al-Gharafa

GoalsAssists

  • Y. Brahimi51

Al Ahli Doha

GoalsAssists

  • N. Sliti32
  • Erik Expósito31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al-Gharafa and Al Ahli Doha drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Al Ahli Doha at 41% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Seydou Sano 13' for Al-Gharafa, Yacine Brahimi 36' for Al-Gharafa, Erik Expósito 52' for Al Ahli Doha, Naïm Sliti 90+3' for Al Ahli Doha. On expected goals it finished 1.49–2.21.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al-Gharafa a 20.9% chance to finish in the bottom two: 6.8% after a win, 19.2% after a draw, 32.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 19.2%, 1.7 points lower than before the match.

For Al Ahli Doha the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 8.2% going in: 13.4% after a win, 5.4% after a draw, 2.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 5.4%, 2.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Stars League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Al-Gharafa v Al Ahli Doha has moved

First published on 8 Oct at 36% / 25% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 34% / 25% / 41%: the biggest move is Al-Gharafa's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Al-Gharafa win34%▼ −2
  2. Draw25%=
  3. Al Ahli Doha win41%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.