Santos Laguna vs Pumas UNAM Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Santos Laguna 2-0 Pumas UNAM.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Santos Laguna, 26% draw, 33% Pumas UNAM — fair odds of 2.44, 3.85 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Santos Laguna at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Santos Laguna vs Pumas UNAM
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1C. AcevedoG
- 18F. PardoD
- 25Felipe SánchezD
- 14E. OronaD
- 3M. CuevasM
- 23F. CáseresM
- 21Fran VillalbaM
- 7D. GonzálezM
- 19E. AguirreF
- 29Tahiel Adrián Jiménez SánchezF
- 10E. BullaudeF
- 28Jonathan PérezD
- 193Luis GómezM
- 17E. EcheverrÃaD
- 4J. AbellaD
- 6J. GüémezM
- 33H. HolguínG
- 20E. LozanoF
- 5A. LópezM
- 8S. MariscalM
- 1K. NavasG
- 21U. AntunaD
- 7R. LópezD
- 6Nathan SilvaD
- 5Rubén DuarteD
- 2P. BennevendoD
- 23JuninhoM
- 8A. CarrasquillaM
- 45P. ViteM
- 10C. HuertaM
- 31R. MoralesF
- 18V. ArteagaM
- 34Á. AzuajeD
- 14L. HerreraF
- 35P. LaraG
- 24T. LeoneD
- 15I. LunaM
- 30Santiago López LópezF
- 22A. MedinaF
- 19J. RivasD
Form going into Santos Laguna vs Pumas UNAM
Santos Laguna
Liga MX
- W5-0Club Queretaro17 October 2026
Pumas UNAM
Liga MX
- W2-1away to Atlante FC17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Santos Laguna | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 20 | +3 | 25 |
| 11 | Pumas UNAM | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 26 | -2 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Pumas UNAM vs Santos Laguna
Pumas UNAM and Santos Laguna have met 7 times in the records we hold, they have won 3 each, with 1 drawn.
The record
Santos Laguna won the last one 2–0 on 22 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pumas UNAM | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 8 |
| Santos Laguna | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 11 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 19 goals, an average of 2.71 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 22 Oct 2026
Liga MXSantos Laguna 2–0 Pumas UNAM - 31 Jan 2026
Liga MXPumas UNAM 4–0 Santos Laguna - 13 Jul 2025
Liga MXSantos Laguna 3–0 Pumas UNAM - 17 Apr 2025
Liga MXPumas UNAM 2–0 Santos Laguna - 14 Jul 2024
Liga MXSantos Laguna 1–1 Pumas UNAM - 19 Feb 2024
Liga MXPumas UNAM 3–0 Santos Laguna - 3 Sep 2023
Liga MXSantos Laguna 2–1 Pumas UNAM
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Pumas UNAM's attack rates 9% above Santos Laguna's, and the two defences are almost level. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Pumas UNAM | 0.82 | 1.29 |
| Santos Laguna | 0.75 | 1.27 |
Leading scorers: Santos Laguna and Pumas UNAM
Santos Laguna
GoalsAssists
- Tahiel Adrián Jiménez Sánchez60
Pumas UNAM
GoalsAssists
- Juninho91
- R. Morales54
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Santos Laguna beat Pumas UNAM 2–0. The model had made a win for Santos Laguna its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Eduardo Aguirre (penalty) 6' for Santos Laguna, Franco Pardo (penalty) 80' for Santos Laguna. Sent off: Nathanael Ananias (Pumas UNAM) 2'. On expected goals it finished 1.88–0.22.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Santos Laguna a 41.8% chance to finish in the top eight: 60.4% after a win, 34.0% after a draw, 19.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 60.4%, 18.6 points higher than before the match.
For Pumas UNAM the question was the chance to finish in the top eight: 60.7% after a win, 35.9% after a draw, 22.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 22.2%.
Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Santos Laguna v Pumas UNAM has moved
First published on 8 Oct at 35% / 27% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 41% / 26% / 33%: the biggest move is Santos Laguna's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Santos Laguna win41%▲ +6
- Draw26%▼ −1
- Pumas UNAM win33%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.