23 October 2026, 14:30 UTC

Al Shamal vs Qatar SC Stars League prediction & result

Al-Shamal SC Stadium, Gray Shamal
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Al Shamal 2-3 Qatar SC.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Al Shamal, 26% draw, 30% Qatar SC — fair odds of 2.27, 3.85 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al Shamal at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al Shamal0%Draw5%Qatar SC95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Baghdad Bounedjah
35'
45+4'
⚽Joao Pedroassist: Ali Saoudi
50'
⚽Pau Primassist: Joao Pedro
Abdelkarim Hassan
52'
Mohamed Ali Ben Romdhane
56'
🔁Mohamed Ali Ben Romdhaneout: Alex Collado
61'
🔁Ali Assadallaout: Omar Ali
61'
🔁Abdelkarim Hassanout: Fahad Waad
61'
•Baghdad Bounedjah
63'
⚽Riyad Mahrez (pen)
65'
72'
🔁Nasir Bakshout: Abdulrasheed Ibrahim
⚽Tiago Silvaassist: Fahad Waad
74'
🔁Pablo Mariout: Jeison Murillo
74'
79'
🔁Eisa Palangiout: Yaseen Lafrid
80'
⚽Yohan Boli
🔁Tiago Silvaout: Wesley Saïd
85'
86'
🔁Said Brahmiout: Ataa Jaber
90+3'
Pau Prim

Match stats — Al Shamal vs Qatar SC

69%Possession31%
18Shots10
8On target5
8Corners1
2.21xG1.28

Goals against chances

Al Shamal2 from 2.21 xGabout what the chances were worth
Qatar SC3 from 1.28 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al Shamal 4-2-3-1
  • 95B. SeckG
  • 6Musab KhoderD
  • 37Ahmed SuhailD
  • 4Pablo MaríD
  • 3Abdelkarim HassanD
  • 28N. BenaïssaM
  • 70Tiago SilvaM
  • 26R. MahrezM
  • 5M. Ben RomdhaneM
  • 8Ali AsadM
  • 11B. BounedjahF
Substitutes
  • 67Saoud Al KhaterG
  • 47Fahad WaadD
  • 78Ahmad Al SaeedF
  • 14Omar AliF
  • 16F. BaisD
  • 10Álex ColladoM
  • 45Abdullah El RadyG
  • 24J. MurilloD
  • 27Ahmed SayyarM
Coach: David Prats
Qatar SC 4-4-2
  • 17A. N. MahmoudG
  • 2Nasir BakshD
  • 40S. F. DioufD
  • 4A. SaoudiD
  • 20Eisa PalangiD
  • 14Said BrahmiM
  • 21Abdullah MarafeeM
  • 24N. MasonM
  • 11Y. BoliM
  • 6Pau PrimF
  • 9João PedroF
Substitutes
  • 15K. Al-ObaidlyM
  • 12Ibrahim MasoudF
  • 28A. AddaiF
  • 74S. Al AbbasiG
  • 66A. Q. Ayman Mohamed A.D
  • 96Ataa JaberM
  • 42Yaseen LafridD
  • 18Mohamed MushrinnM
  • 44A. HanfyD
Coach: Tintín Márquez

Form going into Al Shamal vs Qatar SC

Al Shamal

Stars League

  • D0-0away to Lusail City17 October 2026
  • L0-4Al-Duhail SC8 October 2026

Qatar SC

Stars League

  • D2-2away to Al-Sailiya17 October 2026
  • L0-3Al-Rayyan SC9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Stars League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Al Shamal93331817+112
11Qatar SC91351121-106

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Al Shamal vs Qatar SC

  • 13 April 2026Al Shamal 0–2 Qatar SCStars League
  • 13 February 2026Al Shamal 2–1 Qatar SCEmir Cup
  • 27 September 2025Qatar SC 1–1 Al ShamalStars League
  • 30 January 2025Qatar SC 2–1 Al ShamalStars League
  • 22 August 2024Al Shamal 0–1 Qatar SCStars League
  • 6 April 2024Al Shamal 1–2 Qatar SCStars League

Leading scorers: Al Shamal and Qatar SC

Al Shamal

GoalsAssists

  • A. Zouhzouh61

Qatar SC

GoalsAssists

  • João Pedro41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Qatar SC won 3–2 at Al Shamal. The model had leaned towards a win for Al Shamal at 44% and given a win for Qatar SC 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Joao Pedro 45+4' for Qatar SC, Pau Prim 50' for Qatar SC, Riyad Mahrez (penalty) 65' for Al Shamal, Tiago Silva 74' for Al Shamal, Yohan Boli 80' for Qatar SC. On expected goals it finished 2.21–1.28.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al Shamal a 16.2% chance to finish in the top four: 24.3% after a win, 11.1% after a draw, 6.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.2%, 10 points lower than before the match.

For Qatar SC the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 52.3% going in: 34.0% after a win, 51.0% after a draw, 64.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.0%, 18.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Stars League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Al Shamal v Qatar SC has moved

First published on 8 Oct at 47% / 25% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 44% / 26% / 30%: the biggest move is Al Shamal's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Al Shamal win44%▼ −3
  2. Draw26%▲ +1
  3. Qatar SC win30%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.