30 October 2026, 14:15 UTC

Al Shahaniya vs Al Ahli Doha Stars League prediction & result

Hamad bin Khalifa Stadium, Doha
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Al Shahaniya 1-2 Al Ahli Doha.

Before kick-off the model made it 27% Al Shahaniya, 24% draw, 49% Al Ahli Doha — fair odds of 3.70, 4.17 and 2.04.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al Ahli Doha at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al Shahaniya0%Draw4%Al Ahli Doha96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

18'
Ghanem Al-Minhali
Zvonimir Šarlija
45+2'
57'
⚽Ghanem Al-Minhaliassist: Erik Expósito
Sven van Beek
63'
66'
🔁Naïm Slitiout: Younis Hussein Abdelrahman
🔁Mohamed Abdelfatah Suragout: Lucas Gabriel Ribeiro Firmo
72'
77'
🔁Robin Tihiout: William Troost-Ekong
🔁Jawad El Jemiliout: Adel Al Sulimane
77'
🔁Moameen Mutasemout: Abdelrahman Moustafa
77'
⚽Abdoulaye Traoreassist: Sven van Beek
85'
🔁Francesco Antonucciout: Amenallah Meherzi
86'
🔁Abdullah Alsulaitiout: Khaled Muftah
86'
87'
⚽Driss Fettouhiassist: Benjamin Bourigeaud
90+1'
🔁Benjamin Bourigeaudout: Zinedine Sassi
90+1'
🔁Ahmed Reyed Mawlaout: Jassem Mohammed
90+8'
Driss Fettouhi

Match stats — Al Shahaniya vs Al Ahli Doha

47%Possession53%
10Shots19
3On target7
7Corners8
0.61xG2.8

Goals against chances

Al Shahaniya1 from 0.61 xGabout what the chances were worth
Al Ahli Doha2 from 2.80 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al Shahaniya 4-2-3-1
  • 99Shehab EllethyG
  • 77Yousef Hani BallanD
  • 22S. van BeekD
  • 31Z. ŠarlijaD
  • 19Abdulla Al SulaitiD
  • 88Moameen MutasemM
  • 6Álvaro SanzM
  • 21Mohamed SuragM
  • 10F. AntonucciM
  • 11Jawad El JemiliM
  • 9A. TraoréF
Substitutes
  • 18A. Al SulimaneM
  • 14Salah Alawi Al YahriM
  • 7A. MussedF
  • 4Mohamed SayyarM
  • 81Lucas Gabriel Ribeiro FirmoF
  • 20Ali QadryM
  • 8A. MeherziM
  • 32Khalid MuftahD
  • 17Abdulrahman Fahmi MoustafaF
Coach: Younes Ali
Al Ahli Doha 4-1-4-1
  • 13Mohamed LinglizG
  • 41Ahmed ReyedD
  • 16R. TihiD
  • 88A. AmraouiD
  • 12Ghanem Al MinhaliD
  • 33D. FettouhiM
  • 23N. SlitiM
  • 27B. BourigeaudM
  • 6Luiz CearáM
  • 7J. DraxlerM
  • 10Erik ExpósitoF
Substitutes
  • 5W. Troost-EkongD
  • 53Saleh Ahmed QassemG
  • 18Jassem MohammedD
  • 70Younis AbdelrahmanF
  • 20Hamad MansourM
  • 15Mohammed Abdulla Al-IshaqM
  • 75Nasser Adil BabikerD
  • 11Suhaib GannanF
  • 49Z. SassiD
Coach: N. Jovović

Form going into Al Shahaniya vs Al Ahli Doha

Al Shahaniya

Stars League

  • L0-4Al Sadd22 October 2026
  • L0-6Al-Arabi SC16 October 2026
  • W1-0Lusail City10 October 2026

Al Ahli Doha

Stars League

  • D2-2away to Al-Gharafa22 October 2026
  • L0-3Al Wakrah16 October 2026
  • W5-0Al-Sailiya10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Stars League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Al Shahaniya93151221-910
7Al Ahli Doha93331617-112

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Al Shahaniya vs Al Ahli Doha

  • 20 September 2026Al Ahli Doha 0–1 Al ShahaniyaQSL Cup
  • 27 February 2026Al Ahli Doha 1–2 Al ShahaniyaStars League
  • 26 September 2025Al Shahaniya 1–2 Al Ahli DohaStars League
  • 13 May 2025Al Ahli Doha 2–1 Al ShahaniyaEmir Cup
  • 4 April 2025Al Shahaniya 2–3 Al Ahli DohaStars League
  • 1 November 2024Al Ahli Doha 2–1 Al ShahaniyaStars League

Leading scorers: Al Shahaniya and Al Ahli Doha

Al Shahaniya

GoalsAssists

  • A. Traoré40

Al Ahli Doha

GoalsAssists

  • N. Sliti32
  • Erik Expósito31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al Ahli Doha won 2–1 at Al Shahaniya. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Al Ahli Doha at 49%. The goals: Ghanem Al-Minhali 57' for Al Ahli Doha, Abdoulaye Traore 85' for Al Shahaniya, Driss Fettouhi 87' for Al Ahli Doha. On expected goals it finished 0.61–2.80.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al Shahaniya a 33.3% chance to finish in the bottom two: 6.8% after a win, 32.0% after a draw, 47.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 47.5%, 14.2 points higher than before the match.

For Al Ahli Doha the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 6.7% going in: under 1% after a win, 4.7% after a draw, 18.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at under 1%, 6.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Stars League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.