19 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Pafos vs Apoel Nicosia 1. Division prediction & result

Stelios Kyriakides Stadium, Pafos
Referee: Chrysovalantis Theouli
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Pafos 0-0 Apoel Nicosia.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Pafos, 26% draw, 23% Apoel Nicosia — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Pafos at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Pafos5%Draw92%Apoel Nicosia3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Vlad Dragomir
7'
🔁Vlad Dragomirout: Domingos Quina
46'
🔁Gonçalo Rosa Gonçalves Pereira Rodriguesout: Alexandre Brito
46'
🔁Ken Semaout: Felipe Bruno
46'
46'
🔁Álvaro Carrilloout: Georgios·Angelopoulos
46'
🔁Dimitris Limniosout: Daniel Mancini
54'
Dalcio
68'
🔁Marquinhosout: Stavros Georgiou
Domingos Quina
71'
🔁Leanderson da Silva Genésioout: Anderson Silva
72'
Samy Mmaee
74'
78'
🔁Anastasios Bakasetasout: Stylianos Vrontis
🔁Pêpêout: afonso patrao
82'
90'
🔁Fabricio Pedrozoout: Filip Đuričić

Line-ups

Pafos
  • 99R. MajeckiG
  • 26I. ŠunjićM
  • 12K. SemaM
  • 88Pêpê RodriguesM
  • 3S. MmaeeD
  • 18LelêF
  • 14N. IoannouD
  • 6GugaM
  • 30V. DragomirM
  • 77João CorreiaD
  • 20BielF
Substitutes
  • 50Alexandre Miguel Soares Carvalho BritoM
  • 33Anderson SilvaF
  • 7Bruno FelipeF
  • 60Christos EvzonasM
  • 72K. IoannouD
  • 42G. MichaelF
  • 23Jonatás NoroD
  • 71M. PapastylianouG
  • 17afonso patraoF
Coach: Ricardo Sá Pinto
Apoel Nicosia
  • 9A. BakasetasM
  • 72A. BarákM
  • 16Álvaro CarrilloD
  • 8DálcioM
  • 34K. LaifisD
  • 18D. LimniosF
  • 10MarquinhosF
  • 15F. PedrozoF
  • 25Joan SastreD
  • 3K. StafylidisD
  • 27V. BelecG
Substitutes
  • 1O. ZelenikaG
  • 6S. VrontisM
  • 21K. PoursaitidisF
  • 99F. PérezM
  • 7D. ManciniM
  • 70S. GeorgiouF
  • 14Ángel GarcíaM
  • 11Gabriel MaioliF
  • 31F. ĐuričićM
Coach: N. Papadopoulos

Form going into Pafos vs Apoel Nicosia

Pafos

1. Division

  • W3-1away to Anorthosis11 October 2026

Apoel Nicosia

1. Division

  • W2-1Nea Salamis10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Cyprus 1. Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Pafos9441137+616
4Apoel Nicosia95222111+1017

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Pafos vs Apoel Nicosia

  • 22 May 2026Pafos 2–0 Apoel Nicosia1. Division
  • 26 April 2026Apoel Nicosia 3–3 Pafos1. Division
  • 4 February 2026Pafos 2–0 Apoel Nicosia1. Division
  • 31 August 2025Apoel Nicosia 0–1 Pafos1. Division
  • 12 May 2025Apoel Nicosia 1–1 Pafos1. Division
  • 6 April 2025Pafos 0–1 Apoel Nicosia1. Division

Leading scorers: Pafos and Apoel Nicosia

Pafos

GoalsAssists

  • Lelê20

Apoel Nicosia

GoalsAssists

  • F. Pedrozo50
  • Marquinhos20
  • K. Stafylidis11

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Pafos and Apoel Nicosia drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Pafos at 51% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Pafos a 86.0% chance to finish in the top six: 89.6% after a win, 83.6% after a draw, 80.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 83.6%, 2.4 points lower than before the match.

For Apoel Nicosia the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 55.7% going in: 66.0% after a win, 56.7% after a draw, 52.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 56.7%, 1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 1. Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Pafos v Apoel Nicosia has moved

First published on 5 Oct at 46% / 28% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 51% / 26% / 23%: the biggest move is Pafos's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Pafos win51%▲ +5
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Apoel Nicosia win23%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.