Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Al Khaleej Saihat 1-1 Al-Nassr.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Al Khaleej Saihat, 30% draw, 37% Al-Nassr — fair odds of 3.03, 3.33 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Saudi Pro League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Al-Nassr at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 49A. MorisG
- 39S. Al HamsalD
- 4K. KouyateD
- 3M. Al KhabraniD
- 5P. RebochoD
- 19M. CrespoM
- 8O. MascarellM
- 12M. KanabahM
- 18N. Al SaadiF
- 11S. Al AmriF
- 10A. FulginiF
- 96M. Al HaidariG
- 27F. Al SaqourD
- 17A. Al HafithD
- 14A. Al ShaafiD
- 29R. Al ShanqitiD
- 16B. M. MunshiM
- 15M. HamziF
- 28H. Al EisaF
- 97F. Al RashidiF
- 24BentoG
- 12N. BoushalD
- 5A. Al AmriD
- 26I. MartinezD
- 6S. Al NasserD
- 20AngeloM
- 11Samu CostaM
- 17A. Al KhaibariM
- 10S. ManeM
- 79Joao FelixF
- 7C. RonaldoF
- 1N. Al AqidiG
- 4N. Al SharariD
- 70A. AmanD
- 3M. SimakanD
- 50M. QasheeshD
- 56R. Al GhamdiM
- 14S. Al NajeiM
- 9A. Al HamdanF
- 60S. HaqawiF
Form going into Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr
Al Khaleej Saihat
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Al Riyadh7 September 2026
- L0-3away to NEOM3 September 2026
Al-Nassr
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Abha9 September 2026
- L1-2away to Al-Ittihad5 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Saudi Arabia Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 15 |
| 3 | Al-Nassr | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 11 | +17 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr
Al Khaleej Saihat
GoalsAssists
- J. King50
Al-Nassr
GoalsAssists
- Cristiano Ronaldo80
- Ângelo53
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Al-Nassr at 37% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: O. Mascarell 45' for Al Khaleej Saihat, A. Al Hamdan 72' for Al-Nassr. On expected goals it finished 0.38–1.08.
How the call on Al Khaleej Saihat v Al-Nassr has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 35% / 30% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 33% / 30% / 37%: the biggest move is Al Khaleej Saihat's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Al Khaleej Saihat win33%▼ −2
- Draw30%=
- Al-Nassr win37%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.