Moreirense vs Benfica Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Moreirense 0-4 Benfica.
Before kick-off the model made it 21% Moreirense, 25% draw, 54% Benfica — fair odds of 4.76, 4.00 and 1.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Benfica at 54% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Moreirense vs Benfica
Line-ups
- 13André FerreiraG
- 76Dinis PintoD
- 66Gilberto BatistaD
- 26MaracásD
- 27KikoD
- 23N. JohnM
- 8M. StjepanovićM
- 7Manuel Ascenção Bebiano MendonçaM
- 21Rodri AlonsoM
- 11LandersonM
- 9A. Duville-ParsemainF
- 1AranhaG
- 19Tiago AndradeF
- 25Afonso AssisM
- 99MaranhãoF
- 17Álvaro MartínezD
- 4Kevyn MonteiroD
- 10Kiko BondosoF
- 28Chipyoka SongaF
- 79L. VonićF
- 24Samuel SoaresG
- 58Daniel BanjaquiD
- 44Tomás AraújoD
- 2C. LengletD
- 26S. DahlD
- 36João PalhinhaM
- 18L. BarreiroM
- 27RafaM
- 25G. PrestianniM
- 21A. SchjelderupM
- 14V. PavlidisF
- 3A. CircatiD
- 5E. BarrenecheaM
- 22J. DuránF
- 30C. EcheverriM
- 34S. El KarouaniD
- 72A. CabralF
- 13J. KamińskiM
- 11D. LukebakioF
- 16ManuM
Form going into Moreirense vs Benfica
Moreirense
- L1-2away to FC Porto4 September 2026
- W1-0away to Casa Pia30 August 2026
- L0-4away to Arouca16 August 2026
Benfica
- W3-0away to Maritimo5 September 2026
- W2-1Estoril31 August 2026
- W7-0away to Casa Pia17 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Moreirense | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 7 |
| 2 | Benfica | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 4 | +17 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Moreirense vs Benfica
- 9 September 2026Moreirense 0–4 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- 25 April 2026Benfica 4–1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 14 December 2025Moreirense 0–4 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- 8 February 2025Benfica 3–2 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 30 August 2024Moreirense 1–1 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- 14 April 2024Benfica 3–0 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Moreirense and Benfica
Moreirense
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Benfica
- V. Pavlidis8 goals2 assists
- G. Prestianni5 goals2 assists
- L. Barreiro2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.