Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Pakhtakor AFC Champions League Elite prediction & result
Final score: Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1-0 Pakhtakor.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Al Quwa Al Jawiya, 28% draw, 39% Pakhtakor — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Pakhtakor at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Pakhtakor
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 95Mohammed SalihG
- 17Abbas Adil Neamah Al ChnaniD
- 2Ruslan HanoonD
- 19A. BoudramaD
- 3Muslim MousaD
- 29Tuisila KisindaM
- 16Moses OrkumaM
- 5Saed Al RosanM
- 73Ali SaadM
- 25AbdulameerM
- 10M. JawadF
- 6Mohanad JeahzeD
- 9Haythem JouiniF
- 31Mohammad Raheem Ziad DalfiG
- 13Mujtaba MuhsenD
- 21Ramadan SadeeqD
- 7A. OkpotuF
- 11Murad SubehM
- 22Zainulabdeen Nsaif JasimG
- 90Karar Ali HassanD
- 35S. KuvvatovG
- 22Mukhammad-Bobur KarimovD
- 55M. AbdumajidovD
- 5M. PouraliganjiD
- 8D. SaitovD
- 23Abdurauf Bo'riyevM
- 27S. Sobirkho'jaevM
- 50FlamarionM
- 9I. IbragimovM
- 21B. ResanM
- 29Aymen HusseinF
- 12V. NazarovG
- 13M. DilshodbekovF
- 44D. ErmanovD
- 6Sardor MirqobilovM
- 33Kuvanishbek SaydalievM
- 18Abubakir ShukurullaevM
- 26D TulaganovF
- 17D. KhamdamovM
- 90S. ChineduF
Form going into Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Pakhtakor
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
AFC Champions League Elite
- L1-4Al Ain12 October 2026
- L0-1away to Neftchi Fergana14 September 2026
Pakhtakor
AFC Champions League Elite
- D1-1Al-Qadisiyah FC12 October 2026
- D1-1away to Al-Ahli Jeddah14 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 3 |
| 14 | Pakhtakor | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Pakhtakor
- 29 April 2021Pakhtakor 1–0 Al Quwa Al JawiyaAFC Champions League
- 17 April 2021Al Quwa Al Jawiya 0–0 PakhtakorAFC Champions League
- 12 February 2019Pakhtakor 2–1 Al Quwa Al JawiyaAFC Champions League
The result against the call
Al Quwa Al Jawiya beat Pakhtakor 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Pakhtakor at 39% and given a win for Al Quwa Al Jawiya 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Abdulameer 70' for Al Quwa Al Jawiya. On expected goals it finished 0.40–1.04.