18 October 2026, 15:15 UTC

Cesena vs Avellino Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Dino Manuzzi, Cesena
Referee: Daniele Perenzoni
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Cesena 1-1 Avellino.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Cesena, 29% draw, 35% Avellino — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Cesena at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cesena3%Draw92%Avellino5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
Brando Moruzzi
Alessandro Diamanti
45'
🔁Riccardo Paganoout: Matteo Guidi
45'
⚽Antonio Fioriassist: Cristian Shpendi
51'
57'
🔁Luca Palmieroout: Giacomo Faticanti
57'
🔁Martin Palumboout: L. Di Maggio
🔁Antonio Fioriout: Alessandro Debenedetti
64'
🔁Luca D'Andreaout: Massimiliano Mangraviti
65'
67'
⚽Armando Izzo
73'
🔁Walid Cheddiraout: Andrea Favilli
🔁Mihajlo Ilicout: Matteo Piacentini
77'
Emil Bohinen
83'
84'
🔁Michele Besaggioout: Dimitrios Sounas
84'
🔁Raffaele Russoout: Tommaso Biasci
🔁Emil Bohinenout: Matteo Francesconi
84'

Match stats — Cesena vs Avellino

38%Possession62%
18Shots20
6On target4
7Corners5
2.17xG1.19

Goals against chances

Cesena1 from 2.17 xGless than the chances were worth
Avellino1 from 1.19 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cesena 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. SianoG
  • 15A. CiofiD
  • 6M. IlićD
  • 4J. GelliD
  • 7G. FrabottaD
  • 25D. BisoliM
  • 32E. BohinenM
  • 16L. D'AndreaM
  • 10R. PaganoM
  • 80A. FioriM
  • 9C. ShpendiF
Substitutes
  • 27M. Dalla VecchiaM
  • 91A. DebenedettiF
  • 13L. FerrettiG
  • 39N. FontanaG
  • 8M. FrancesconiM
  • 18M. GuidiM
  • 23V. MagniD
  • 24M. MangravitiD
  • 2M. NattaD
Coach: Alessandro Diamanti
Avellino 3-5-2
  • 50T. MartinelliG
  • 4A. IzzoD
  • 23M. VenturiD
  • 56P. EnriciD
  • 2F. MissoriM
  • 20M. PalumboM
  • 6L. PalmieroM
  • 39M. BesaggioM
  • 27B. MoruzziM
  • 10R. RussoF
  • 9W. CheddiraF
Substitutes
  • 24D. SounasM
  • 44L. ŠimićD
  • 22J. SassiG
  • 3M. SalaD
  • 7L. PandolfiF
  • 99A. FavilliF
  • 30E. AdamoM
  • 16G. FaticantiM
  • 8L. Di MaggioM
Coach: A. Nesta

Form going into Cesena vs Avellino

Cesena

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2away to Benevento10 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Juve Stabia18 September 2026
  • D2-2Cremonese12 September 2026
  • D1-1Mantova6 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Virtus Entella29 August 2026

Avellino

All competitions we cover

  • W4-1Sampdoria9 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Ascoli19 September 2026
  • D1-1Palermo13 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Modena6 September 2026
  • W3-0Vicenza Virtus29 August 2026

What these results say

  • Cesena conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Cesena failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Cesena scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Avellino scored in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Cesena113621214-215
5Avellino114431611+516

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cesena vs Avellino

  • 31 January 2026Avellino 3–1 CesenaSerie B
  • 9 November 2025Cesena 3–0 AvellinoSerie B
  • 10 February 2018Avellino 1–1 CesenaSerie B
  • 15 September 2017Cesena 3–1 AvellinoSerie B
  • 22 April 2017Avellino 1–1 CesenaSerie B
  • 26 November 2016Cesena 3–0 AvellinoSerie B

Leading scorers: Cesena and Avellino

Cesena

GoalsAssists

  • C. Shpendi81

Avellino

GoalsAssists

  • R. Russo52
  • M. Besaggio30

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Cesena and Avellino drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Cesena at 36% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Antonio Fiori 51' for Cesena, Armando Izzo 67' for Avellino. Sent off: Alessandro Diamanti (Cesena) 45'. On expected goals it finished 2.17–1.19.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cesena a 25.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 19.7% after a win, 26.0% after a draw, 30.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 26.0%, 0.6 points higher than before the match.

For Avellino the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 16.1% going in: 19.8% after a win, 14.9% after a draw, 12.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 14.9%, 1.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Cesena v Avellino has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 38% / 30% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 36% / 29% / 35%: the biggest move is Avellino's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Cesena win36%▼ −2
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Avellino win35%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.