8 November 2026, 16:15 UTC

Carrarese vs Sampdoria Serie B prediction & result

Stadio dei Marmi, Carrara
Referee: Davide Di Marco
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Carrarese 0-1 Sampdoria.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Carrarese, 29% draw, 26% Sampdoria — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Carrarese at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Carrarese0%Draw4%Sampdoria96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

19'
Gennaro Tutino
23'
⚽Gennaro Tutinoassist: Tjas Begic
Tommaso Rubino
36'
41'
Lorenzo Mezzotero
🔁Jacopo Martiniout: G. Marconi
45'
52'
Tjas Begic
62'
🔁Oliver Abildgaardout: Francesco Conti
🔁Fabio Andreaout: Colin Dagba
62'
🔁Nicolas Schiaviout: Niccolò Belloni
63'
🔁Tommaso Rubinoout: Luka Topalovic
63'
68'
🔁Lorenzo Mezzoteroout: Bjorn Meijer
69'
🔁Gennaro Tutinoout: Yann Karamoh
🔁Jonas Rouhiout: Moustapha Cisse
84'
85'
Yann Karamoh

Match stats — Carrarese vs Sampdoria

72%Possession28%
13Shots4
1On target1
6Corners2
0.91xG0.54

Goals against chances

Carrarese0 from 0.91 xGless than the chances were worth
Sampdoria1 from 0.54 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Carrarese 3-1-4-2
  • 1S. PizzignaccoG
  • 13F. RuggeriD
  • 6F. OlianaD
  • 33F. RealeD
  • 23M. BraunöderM
  • 77G. ParlantiM
  • 28J. MartiniM
  • 18Nicolás SchiaviM
  • 73J. RouhiM
  • 10T. RubinoF
  • 9F. AbiusoF
Substitutes
  • 70N. CudrigF
  • 11M. CisséF
  • 7N. BelloniM
  • 5T. MacchioniD
  • 32M. FinottoF
  • 12G. GarofaniG
  • 78Tommaso GuercioD
  • 91G. MarconiF
  • 2C. DagbaD
Coach: G. Pagliuca
Sampdoria 4-3-3
  • 12Andrey KrastevG
  • 43K. MbabuD
  • 15F. Delli CarriD
  • 13L. RavanelliD
  • 3S. GartenmannD
  • 6L. HendersonM
  • 28O. AbildgaardM
  • 45A. MakoumbouM
  • 39L. MezzoteroF
  • 99G. TutinoF
  • 11T. BegićF
Substitutes
  • 37S. AmarandeiM
  • 33F. ContiM
  • 38K. DiopD
  • 44Gerald DonegàM
  • 25A. FerrariD
  • 14Yann KaramohF
  • 96S. MassoloG
  • 5B. MeijerD
  • 1P. VindahlG
Coach: L. D'Angelo

Form going into Carrarese vs Sampdoria

Carrarese

Serie B

  • L0-3away to Hellas Verona1 November 2026
  • W2-1Arezzo28 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Palermo25 October 2026
  • W2-1Modena17 October 2026

Sampdoria

Serie B

  • W2-0Virtus Entella31 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Ascoli27 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Sudtirol24 October 2026
  • L1-2Arezzo18 October 2026

What these results say

  • Carrarese conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Carrarese had three goals or more.
  • Carrarese scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Sampdoria failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Sampdoria scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Sampdoria conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Carrarese11317914-510
15Sampdoria113261118-711

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Carrarese vs Sampdoria

  • 18 March 2026Carrarese 2–0 SampdoriaSerie B
  • 7 December 2025Sampdoria 3–2 CarrareseSerie B
  • 25 April 2025Carrarese 1–0 SampdoriaSerie B
  • 26 December 2024Sampdoria 1–1 CarrareseSerie B

The result against the call

Sampdoria won 1–0 at Carrarese. The model had leaned towards a win for Carrarese at 45% and given a win for Sampdoria 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Gennaro Tutino 23' for Sampdoria. On expected goals it finished 0.91–0.54.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Carrarese a 16.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 12.5% after a win, 18.7% after a draw, 22.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 22.1%, 5.4 points higher than before the match.

For Sampdoria the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 49.6% going in: 40.0% after a win, 49.2% after a draw, 54.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 40.0%, 9.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Carrarese v Sampdoria has moved

First published on 25 Oct at 49% / 29% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 45% / 29% / 26%: the biggest move is Carrarese's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Carrarese win45%▼ −4
  2. Draw29%=
  3. Sampdoria win26%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.