Brisbane Roar vs Auckland FC A-League prediction & result
Final score: Brisbane Roar 1-1 Auckland FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Brisbane Roar, 25% draw, 43% Auckland FC — fair odds of 3.13, 4.00 and 2.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Auckland FC at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Brisbane Roar vs Auckland FC
Line-ups
- 40George PlusninG
- 77Milorad StajićD
- 5Tom AldredD
- 16Joel KingD
- 13Tate RussellM
- 10Tae Hee NamM
- 6Noah MaieroniM
- 8Tyrese FrancoisM
- 19Sabit James NgorM
- 17Justin VidicF
- 9Virgiliu PostolachiF
- 11Marko IlicF
- 1Dean BouzanisG
- 15Hosine BilityD
- 2Jacob NassoD
- 14Emin DurakovicM
- 44Jordan LautonM
- 22Nathan AmanatidisF
- 1Michael WoudG
- 2Hiroki SakaiD
- 23Ronan WynneD
- 4Nando PijnakerD
- 15Francis De VriesD
- 77Lachlan BrookM
- 8Felipe GallegosM
- 22Jake BrimmerM
- 27Logan RogersonM
- 35Jonty BidoisF
- 10Lachlan BaylissF
- 30Joseph James KnowlesG
- 25Luka VicelichD
- 17Callan ElliotD
- 16Daniel NormannM
- 57Van FitzharrisM
- 18Marley LeuluaiM
- 21Isa PrinsM
Form going into Brisbane Roar vs Auckland FC
Brisbane Roar
A-League
- W2-1Perth Glory23 October 2026
Auckland FC
A-League
- L2-5away to Western Sydney Wanderers24 October 2026
- W3-1Melbourne City17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
A-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Brisbane Roar | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 8 | Auckland FC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Brisbane Roar vs Auckland FC
- 9 January 2026Brisbane Roar 0–2 Auckland FCA-League
- 23 November 2025Auckland FC 1–1 Brisbane RoarA-League
- 3 August 2025Brisbane Roar 2–2 Auckland FCFriendlies Clubs
- 30 March 2025Brisbane Roar 0–2 Auckland FCA-League
- 19 October 2024Auckland FC 2–0 Brisbane RoarA-League
Leading scorers: Brisbane Roar and Auckland FC
Brisbane Roar
GoalsAssists
- J. Vidic20
Auckland FC
GoalsAssists
- L. Bayliss20
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Brisbane Roar and Auckland FC drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Auckland FC at 43% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: H. Sakai 12' for Auckland FC, T. Aldred 90+5' for Brisbane Roar.
How the call on Brisbane Roar v Auckland FC has moved
First published on 16 Oct at 26% / 26% / 48% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 32% / 25% / 43%: the biggest move is Brisbane Roar's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Brisbane Roar win32%▲ +6
- Draw25%▼ −1
- Auckland FC win43%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.