27 October 2026, 10:00 UTC

SHANGHAI SIPG vs Công An Nhân Dân AFC Champions League Elite prediction & result

Shanghai Pudong Football Stadium, Shanghai
Referee: Choi Hyun-jai
Full time2 – 3

Final score: SHANGHAI SIPG 2-3 Công An Nhân Dân.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% SHANGHAI SIPG, 24% draw, 21% Công An Nhân Dân — fair odds of 1.82, 4.17 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

SHANGHAI SIPG at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

SHANGHAI SIPG0%Draw6%Công An Nhân Dân94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

35'
⚽Brayan Pereaassist: Léo Arthur
37'
Frans Putros
⚽Prince Ampemassist: Jaume Grau
44'
47'
Stefan Mauk
49'
⚽Léo Arthurassist: Brayan Perea
57'
Le Van Do
⚽Miguel Campos
60'
🔁Wu Leiout: Leonardo Nascimento Lopes de Souza
61'
🔁Jaume Grauout: Mateus Vital
61'
🔁Kuai Jiwenout: Liu Zhurun
61'
66'
🔁Damià Sabater Tousout: Nguyen Quang Hai
66'
🔁Alan Grafiteout: Le Pham Thanh Long
66'
🔁Le Van Doout: Phan Ngoc Tin
69'
⚽Brayan Pereaassist: Léo Arthur
•Leonardo Nascimento Lopes de Souza
78'
⚽Mateus Vital (pen)
80'
88'
🔁Stefan Maukout: Hoang Van Toan
🔁Miguel Camposout: Li Xinxiang
89'
🔁Óscar Melendoout: Zhang Yuan
89'
90+1'
🔁Léo Arthurout: Dinh Thanh Binh

Match stats — SHANGHAI SIPG vs Công An Nhân Dân

64%Possession36%
18Shots18
4On target6
5Corners4
2.22xG3.3

Goals against chances

SHANGHAI SIPG2 from 2.22 xGabout what the chances were worth
Công An Nhân Dân3 from 3.30 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

SHANGHAI SIPG 3-5-2
  • 1Yan JunlingG
  • 44Miguel CamposD
  • 3Jiang GuangtaiD
  • 40Yusup UmidjanD
  • 22Xi Yang AlexD
  • 21Óscar MelendoM
  • 16Jaume GrauM
  • 47Jiwen KuaiM
  • 32Li ShuaiD
  • 7Wu LeiF
  • 17P. AmpemF
Substitutes
  • 8K. AziangbeM
  • 33Liu ZhurunF
  • 49Liu XinxiangF
  • 4Wang Zhen'aoD
  • 23Fu HuanD
  • 28Yue XinD
  • 10Mateus VitalM
  • 12Chen WeiG
  • 6Zhang YuanM
Coach: K. Muscat
Công An Nhân Dân 3-4-3
  • 1F. NguyenG
  • 38A. LeygleyD
  • 55Tran Duc NamF
  • 5Đoàn Văn HậuD
  • 88Lê Văn ĐôM
  • 14Damià SabaterM
  • 6S. MaukM
  • 7J. PendantD
  • 10Léo ArturM
  • 72Alan GrafiteF
  • 90B. PereaF
Substitutes
  • 23Vu Thanh VinhG
  • 12Hoang Van ToanD
  • 4Phan Ngọc TínD
  • 15Bui Xuan ThinhM
  • 30Y Eli NiêG
  • 18Đinh Thanh BìnhF
  • 11Lê Phạm Thành LongM
  • 19Nguyễn Quang HảiM
  • 26Ha Van PhuongM
Coach: Alexandré Pölking

Form going into SHANGHAI SIPG vs Công An Nhân Dân

SHANGHAI SIPG

AFC Champions League Elite

  • D1-1Daejeon Citizen13 October 2026
  • W6-4away to Ratchaburi15 September 2026

Công An Nhân Dân

AFC Champions League Elite

  • L0-1Kashima13 October 2026
  • L1-4away to Gamba Osaka15 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

AFC Champions League Elite table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5SHANGHAI SIPG42111310+37
11Công An Nhân Dân411247-34

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: SHANGHAI SIPG and Công An Nhân Dân

SHANGHAI SIPG

GoalsAssists

  • P. Ampem61
  • Leonardo21

Công An Nhân Dân

GoalsAssists

  • B. Perea31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Công An Nhân Dân won 3–2 at SHANGHAI SIPG. The model had leaned towards a win for SHANGHAI SIPG at 55% and given a win for Công An Nhân Dân 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Brayan Perea 35' for Công An Nhân Dân, Prince Ampem 44' for SHANGHAI SIPG, Léo Arthur 49' for Công An Nhân Dân, Miguel Campos 60' for SHANGHAI SIPG, Brayan Perea 69' for Công An Nhân Dân. On expected goals it finished 2.22–3.30.

How the call on SHANGHAI SIPG v Công An Nhân Dân has moved

First published on 13 Oct at 52% / 25% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 55% / 24% / 21%: the biggest move is SHANGHAI SIPG's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. SHANGHAI SIPG win55%▲ +3
  2. Draw24%▼ −1
  3. Công An Nhân Dân win21%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.