Beijing Guoan vs Jeonbuk Motors AFC Champions League Elite prediction & result
Final score: Beijing Guoan 2-2 Jeonbuk Motors.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Beijing Guoan, 27% draw, 32% Jeonbuk Motors — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Beijing Guoan at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Beijing Guoan vs Jeonbuk Motors
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 34Hou SenG
- 27Wang GangD
- 25U. SpajićD
- 5Guilherme RamosD
- 26Bai YangD
- 20B. NkololoF
- 23DawhanM
- 8A. KonteM
- 28J. DudziakD
- 10Zhang XizheM
- 77C. AkoloF
- 4Li LeiD
- 41Xi ChengM
- 47Jiefu DengD
- 6Chi ZhongguoM
- 9Zhang YuningF
- 7SerginhoM
- 11Lin LiangmingF
- 24Abduhamit AbdugheniD
- 21Yue Tze NamD
- 31Song Bum-KeunG
- 27Hwang Seung-JunD
- 5Park Ji-SooD
- 2Kim Young-BinD
- 66Choi Woo-JinD
- 16João GamboaM
- 97Kim Jin-GyuM
- 7Lee Dong-JunF
- 28Lee Yeong-JaeM
- 11Kim Seung-SubF
- 99Bruno MotaF
- 95ItaloM
- 39Seo Jeong-HyeokD
- 13Kang Sang-YoonM
- 4Cho Wi-JeD
- 30DodozinhoF
- 1Lee Ju-HyunG
- 6Maeng Seong-UngM
- 3Yeon Je-UnD
- 9Tiago OrobóF
Form going into Beijing Guoan vs Jeonbuk Motors
Beijing Guoan
AFC Champions League Elite
- W1-0away to Buriram United13 October 2026
- W3-1Pohang Steelers15 September 2026
Jeonbuk Motors
AFC Champions League Elite
- L0-2away to Vissel Kobe14 October 2026
- W2-1Kashiwa Reysol16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Beijing Guoan | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Jeonbuk Motors | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Beijing Guoan vs Jeonbuk Motors
- 7 May 2019Beijing Guoan 0–1 Jeonbuk MotorsAFC Champions League
- 6 March 2019Jeonbuk Motors 3–1 Beijing GuoanAFC Champions League
The result against the call
Beijing Guoan and Jeonbuk Motors drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Beijing Guoan at 41% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Bruno Mota 2' for Jeonbuk Motors, Jeremy Dudziak 34' for Beijing Guoan, Wang Gang 52' for Beijing Guoan, Lee Yeong-jae 64' for Jeonbuk Motors. On expected goals it finished 1.55–0.73.
How the call on Beijing Guoan v Jeonbuk Motors has moved
First published on 13 Oct at 42% / 28% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 41% / 27% / 32%: the biggest move is Jeonbuk Motors's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Beijing Guoan win41%▼ −1
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Jeonbuk Motors win32%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.