Al-Duhail SC vs Lusail City Stars League prediction & result
Final score: Al-Duhail SC 3-1 Lusail City.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Al-Duhail SC, 30% draw, 27% Lusail City — fair odds of 2.33, 3.33 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Al-Duhail SC at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al-Duhail SC vs Lusail City
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Salah ZakariaG
- 21J. CastellettoD
- 3Lucas TutaD
- 5Bassam Al RawiD
- 18Sultan Al BraikD
- 23Assim MadiboM
- 24B. SoumaréM
- 19Almoez AliM
- 8Mubarak Shanan HamzaM
- 7S. YansanéM
- 9K. PiątekF
- 94Awad Ashraf Awad OsmanG
- 26Fahad BakerG
- 22I. BambaM
- 97A. BelmadiF
- 30A. DoumbouyaD
- 37Z. El JaouniD
- 36Adam Riyad FraikhM
- 76Y. A. El AjamiF
- 27Abdalla Mugib GamerD
- 1A. ShakouriG
- 2A. PilaliD
- 4F. RussoD
- 6O. EbrahimiD
- 27M. AiashD
- 66A. NematiD
- 7F. ZavoshiM
- 20Naif Al HadhramiM
- 8Khaled MohammedM
- 14K. MansourM
- 19RodrigoF
- 96Amir HassanG
- 5A. Al KaratlyM
- 21A. NdiayeF
- 45Muhammad Taher KhanM
- 3Ali MalolahD
- 30H. KamalD
- 70Mohamed KhaledF
- 11H. FirouziF
- 15Abdulhadi Kasr Al-OunM
Form going into Al-Duhail SC vs Lusail City
Al-Duhail SC
Stars League
- W3-2away to Al Sadd18 October 2026
- W4-0away to Al Shamal8 October 2026
Lusail City
Stars League
- D0-0Al Shamal17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Al Shahaniya10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Al-Duhail SC | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 8 | +12 | 21 |
| 5 | Lusail City | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Al-Duhail SC and Lusail City
Al-Duhail SC
GoalsAssists
- K. Piątek33
- Almoez Ali30
- B. Soumaré30
Lusail City
GoalsAssists
- Rodrigo60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al-Duhail SC beat Lusail City 3–1. The model had made a win for Al-Duhail SC its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Almoez Ali 40' for Al-Duhail SC, Rodrigo Machado 89' for Lusail City, Boubakary Soumaré 90+4' for Al-Duhail SC, Almoez Ali 90+11' for Al-Duhail SC. On expected goals it finished 2.75–0.71.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al-Duhail SC a 89.9% chance to finish in the top four: 96.4% after a win, 89.2% after a draw, 80.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 96.4%, 6.5 points higher than before the match.
For Lusail City the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 6.5% going in: 15.3% after a win, 4.1% after a draw, 1.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 1.9%, 4.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Stars League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Al-Duhail SC v Lusail City has moved
First published on 8 Oct at 37% / 28% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 43% / 30% / 27%: the biggest move is Lusail City's chance of winning, down 8 points.
- Al-Duhail SC win43%▲ +6
- Draw30%▲ +2
- Lusail City win27%▼ −8
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.