23 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor Süper Lig prediction & result

Alanya Oba Stadium, Alanya
Referee: A. Sansalan
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Alanyaspor 1-2 Kocaelispor.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Alanyaspor, 33% draw, 27% Kocaelispor — fair odds of 2.50, 3.03 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Alanyaspor at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Alanyaspor0%Draw3%Kocaelispor97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

27'
⚽B. Kutluassist: R. Rivas
42'
⚽M. Bakuassist: F. Aye
45+1'
E. Ortakaya
🔁G. Makoutaout: Maestro
46'
🔁I. Hagiout: E. Keskin
46'
🔁A. Usluogluout: Bikoue
46'
⚽Ruanassist: E. Keskin
52'
F. Aksoy
53'
61'
🔁G. Sousaout: D. Agyei
67'
🔁R. Rivasout: M. Cinan
67'
🔁M. Bakuout: M. Altunbas
🔁B. Gezekout: I. Celik
70'
🔁F. Aksoyout: O. Ben Ali
77'
81'
B. Kutlu
82'
🔁B. Kutluout: M. Maglica
82'
🔁F. Ayeout: T. Gulliksen
F. Aliti
90'
I. Celik
90+2'
90+3'
Show

Match stats — Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor

50%Possession50%
10Shots17
4On target5
7Corners7
0.47xG1.54

Goals against chances

Alanyaspor1 from 0.47 xGmore than the chances were worth
Kocaelispor2 from 1.54 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Alanyaspor 3-4-2-1
  • 48Paulo VictorG
  • 3Nuno LimaD
  • 5Fidan AlitiD
  • 20Fatih AksoyD
  • 94Florent HadergjonajM
  • 42Gaius MakoutaM
  • 55Baran Ali GezekM
  • 11Ruan Pereira DuarteM
  • 10Ianis HagiF
  • 7Ibrahim KayaF
  • 17Arda UsluoğluF
Substitutes
  • 8Enes KeskinM
  • 58MaestroM
  • 19Iván CédricF
  • 26İzzet ÇelikM
  • 9Omar Ben AliF
  • 23Mert Furkan BayramG
  • 4Bedirhan ÖzyurtD
  • 88Yusuf ÖzdemirM
  • 16Hwang Ui-JoF
Kocaelispor 5-4-1
  • 83Serhat ÖztaşdelenG
  • 22Uğur Kaan YıldızD
  • 2Anfernee Jamal DijksteelD
  • 5Emir OrtakayaD
  • 14ShowD
  • 99Rigoberto RivasD
  • 11Gonçalo SousaM
  • 10Berkan KutluM
  • 20Mahamadou SusohoM
  • 32Makana BakuM
  • 97Florian AyéF
Substitutes
  • 7Dan AgyeiF
  • 3Muharrem CinanD
  • 26Metehan AltunbaşF
  • 6Matej MaglicaD
  • 8Tobias Fjeld GulliksenM
  • 23Onurcan PiriG
  • 41Onur ÖztongaD
  • 27Ege BilimM
  • 75Tayfur BingölD

Form going into Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor

Alanyaspor

Süper Lig

  • L0-3away to Fenerbahçe17 October 2026
  • D0-0Erzurumspor FK10 October 2026

Kocaelispor

Süper Lig

  • L1-2Göztepe18 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Beşiktaş11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Süper Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Alanyaspor11335918-912
7Kocaelispor11614139+419

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor

  • 18 March 2026Alanyaspor 5–0 KocaelisporSüper Lig
  • 25 October 2025Kocaelispor 2–0 AlanyasporSüper Lig
  • 5 December 2023Alanyaspor 1–0 KocaelisporTürkiye Kupası

Leading scorers: Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor

Alanyaspor

No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Kocaelispor

GoalsAssists

  • B. Kutlu51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Kocaelispor won 2–1 at Alanyaspor. The model had leaned towards a win for Alanyaspor at 40% and given a win for Kocaelispor 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: B. Kutlu 27' for Kocaelispor, M. Baku 42' for Kocaelispor, Ruan 52' for Alanyaspor. On expected goals it finished 0.47–1.54.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Alanyaspor a 4.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 2.5% after a win, 4.8% after a draw, 6.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.0%, 1.8 points higher than before the match.

For Kocaelispor the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 4.3% going in: 2.3% after a win, 3.7% after a draw, 5.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 2.3%, 2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Süper Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.