24 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Samsunspor vs Amed Süper Lig prediction & result

Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu, Samsun
Referee: Kadir Saglam, Türkiye
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Samsunspor 1-2 Amed.

Before kick-off the model made it 24% Samsunspor, 22% draw, 54% Amed — fair odds of 4.17, 4.55 and 1.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Amed at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Samsunspor0%Draw4%Amed96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
D. Saba
⚽L. Tomassonassist: T. Coulibaly
21'
A. Sousa
36'
B. Bayazit
37'
A. Sousa
37'
A. Sousa
37'
45'
F. Soyalp
Y. E. Cift
45+1'
46'
🔁M. Khalilout: A. T. Bulbul
46'
🔁F. Soyalpout: M. Diagne
48'
L. Dellova
61'
M. Diagne
61'
M. Diagne
61'
M. Diagne
🔁I. Drapinskiout: Y. E. Cift
71'
🔁T. Coulibalyout: E. Tavsan
72'
73'
⚽G. Orban (pen)
75'
🔁E. Krasniqiout: G. Gul
🔁A. Sekongoout: S. Onur
79'
84'
⚽D. Sabaassist: G. Orban
🔁J. Mendesout: M. Tan
84'
🔁G. Guarinoout: S. Jarju
85'
86'
🔁S. Balletout: M. Yesil
89'
🔁D. Sabaout: M. Acer
E. Tavsan
89'

Match stats — Samsunspor vs Amed

48%Possession52%
10Shots22
3On target5
2Corners8
0.91xG1.54

Goals against chances

Samsunspor1 from 0.91 xGabout what the chances were worth
Amed2 from 1.54 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Samsunspor 3-5-2
  • 25Bilal BayazitG
  • 16Strahinja ErakovićD
  • 34Gabriele GuarinoD
  • 3Igor DrapińskiD
  • 2Josafat MendesM
  • 42Antoine SekongoM
  • 4Elliot WattM
  • 77Afonso SousaM
  • 17Logi TomassonM
  • 10Tanguy CoulibalyF
  • 18Mohamed BayoF
Substitutes
  • 22Yunus Emre ÇiftD
  • 7Elayis TavsanF
  • 8Samed OnurM
  • 29Haluk Mustafa TanD
  • 30Saikuba JarjuF
  • 1Okan KocukG
  • 23Enes AlbakD
  • 19Oskar ØhlenschlaegerF
  • 20Yalçın KayanM
Amed 4-2-3-1
  • 40Alban LafontG
  • 7Ermal KrasniqiD
  • 5Lumbardh DellovaD
  • 4David Robert BatesD
  • 17Umut MeraşD
  • 22Rayan RavelosonM
  • 8Furkan SoyalpM
  • 10Samuel BalletM
  • 91Dia SabaM
  • 74Mohamed KhalilM
  • 99Gift OrbanF
Substitutes
  • 81Ali Turap BülbülD
  • 45Mbaye DiagneF
  • 18Gökhan GülM
  • 21Mehmet YeşilD
  • 3Miraç AcerD
  • 27Burak BozanG
  • 47Kahraman DemirtaşD
  • 33Amadou CisséD
  • 93Rayan LutinM

Form going into Samsunspor vs Amed

Samsunspor

Süper Lig

  • L1-4away to Kasımpaşa18 October 2026
  • L0-3Trabzonspor10 October 2026

Amed

Süper Lig

  • W1-0Konyaspor17 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Gençlerbirliği S.K.10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Süper Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Samsunspor112181126-157
3Amed117222815+1323

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Samsunspor vs Amed

  • 19 February 2020Samsunspor 3–0 Amed2. Lig
  • 9 October 2019Amed 0–0 Samsunspor2. Lig
  • 20 January 2019Amed 3–2 Samsunspor2. Lig
  • 2 September 2018Samsunspor 1–0 Amed2. Lig

The full Samsunspor vs Amed record →

Leading scorers: Samsunspor and Amed

Samsunspor

No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.

Amed

GoalsAssists

  • G. Orban104
  • D. Sabia61
  • S. Ballet41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Amed won 2–1 at Samsunspor. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Amed at 54%. The goals: L. Tomasson 21' for Samsunspor, G. Orban (penalty) 73' for Amed, D. Saba 84' for Amed. Sent off: A. Sousa (Samsunspor) 37', M. Diagne (Amed) 61'. On expected goals it finished 0.91–1.54.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Samsunspor a 58.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 49.3% after a win, 56.2% after a draw, 62.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 62.4%, 3.8 points higher than before the match.

For Amed the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 55.1% going in: 59.4% after a win, 50.9% after a draw, 46.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 59.4%, 4.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Süper Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Samsunspor v Amed has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 27% / 24% / 49% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 24% / 22% / 54%: the biggest move is Amed's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Samsunspor win24%▼ −3
  2. Draw22%▼ −2
  3. Amed win54%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.