24 October 2026, 10:30 UTC

Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa Süper Lig prediction & result

Istanbul
Referee: A. Akarsu
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Eyüpspor 0-1 Kasımpaşa.

Before kick-off the model made it 23% Eyüpspor, 27% draw, 50% Kasımpaşa — fair odds of 4.35, 3.70 and 2.00.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Kasımpaşa at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Eyüpspor0%Draw3%Kasımpaşa97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

29'
K. Demirbay
37'
⚽A. Benedyczakassist: H. Hajradinovic
🔁K. Michalakout: M. Demir
46'
62'
🔁H. Hajradinovicout: A. Baldursson
🔁I. Taskinout: A. Sabiri
66'
🔁L. Pintorout: B. Boutobba
73'
🔁D. Costaout: C. Raux Yao
73'
79'
🔁E. Mendesout: M. Rafferty
79'
🔁A. Benedyczakout: G. Yalcin
🔁Y. Barasiout: A. Yasar
84'
87'
A. Kol
90'
🔁J. Rak-Sakyiout: T. Diarra
90'
🔁A. Kolout: A. Mujde

Match stats — Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa

52%Possession48%
12Shots10
4On target4
6Corners5
0.43xG0.59

Goals against chances

Eyüpspor0 from 0.43 xGabout what the chances were worth
Kasımpaşa1 from 0.59 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Eyüpspor 4-1-4-1
  • 1Emre BilginG
  • 7Talha ÜlvanD
  • 5Jawad El YamiqD
  • 33Zak JulesD
  • 21Simone GiordanoD
  • 88Chandrel MassangaM
  • 77Konrad MichalakM
  • 8David CostaM
  • 28Taşkın IlterM
  • 11Lenny PintorM
  • 9Yusuf BarasıF
Substitutes
  • 70Mete DemirF
  • 10Abdelhamid SabiriM
  • 15Charles-Andre Raux YaoM
  • 98Bilal BoutobbaF
  • 4Seyfettin Anıl YaşarD
  • 31Horațiu MoldovanG
  • 3Arda YavuzD
  • 42Berhan SatliD
  • 18Hamza AkmanM
Kasımpaşa 4-2-3-1
  • 1Andreas GianniotisG
  • 2Cláudio WinckD
  • 4Adem ArousD
  • 27Matei IlieD
  • 45Ayberk KarapoD
  • 51Elson MendesM
  • 26Kerem DemirbayM
  • 17Jesurun Rak-SakyiM
  • 10Haris HajradinovićM
  • 7Ali Yavuz KolM
  • 9Adrian BenedyczakF
Substitutes
  • 16Andri Fannar BaldurssonM
  • 19Marcus RaffertyM
  • 50Güven YalçınF
  • 11Thiemoko DiarraF
  • 8Atakan MujdeM
  • 25Ali Emre YanarG
  • 30Ahmet Taha DağbaşıD
  • 18Ömer BayramD
  • 5Jakob JessenD

Form going into Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa

Eyüpspor

Süper Lig

  • L0-2away to Erzurumspor FK17 October 2026
  • L0-4Göztepe12 October 2026

Kasımpaşa

Süper Lig

  • W4-1Samsunspor18 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Galatasaray9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Süper Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Eyüpspor111010330-273
5Kasımpaşa115511711+620

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa

  • 15 March 2026Kasımpaşa 1–0 EyüpsporSüper Lig
  • 20 October 2025Eyüpspor 2–0 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
  • 10 May 2025Eyüpspor 0–3 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
  • 13 December 2024Kasımpaşa 2–0 EyüpsporSüper Lig

The full Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa record →

Leading scorers: Eyüpspor and Kasımpaşa

Eyüpspor

No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.

Kasımpaşa

GoalsAssists

  • A. Benedyczak72

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Kasımpaşa won 1–0 at Eyüpspor. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Kasımpaşa at 50%. The goal: A. Benedyczak 37' for Kasımpaşa. On expected goals it finished 0.43–0.59.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Eyüpspor a 94.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 91.5% after a win, 94.7% after a draw, 95.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 95.7%, 1.2 points higher than before the match.

For Kasımpaşa the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 7.2% going in: 8.2% after a win, 5.7% after a draw, 4.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.2%, 1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Süper Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Eyüpspor v Kasımpaşa has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 30% / 30% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 23% / 27% / 50%: the biggest move is Kasımpaşa's chance of winning, up 10 points.

  1. Eyüpspor win23%▼ −7
  2. Draw27%▼ −3
  3. Kasımpaşa win50%▲ +10

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.