19 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş Süper Lig prediction & result

Papara Park, Trabzon
Referee: C. Aydin
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Trabzonspor 2-0 Beşiktaş.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Trabzonspor, 25% draw, 29% Beşiktaş — fair odds of 2.17, 4.00 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Trabzonspor at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Trabzonspor99%Draw1%Beşiktaş0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽O. Tufan
21'
32'
F. Miretti
Fabinho
33'
60'
E. Topcu
🔁O. Tufanout: T. Jabol-Folcarelli
63'
⚽M. Salahassist: Franculino
71'
77'
🔁F. Mirettiout: K. Ouattara
77'
🔁V. Cernyout: Oh Hyeon-Gyu
77'
🔁R. Yilmazout: I. Fakili
🔁A. Simsirout: N. Saviolo
81'
85'
I. Fakili
85'
🔁J. Olaitanout: W. Ndidi
🔁Franculinoout: U. Nayir
88'
🔁E. Muciout: C. Ozkacar
89'
90'
🔁S. Ozcanout: K. Kayra Yilmaz
90'
K. Ouattara

Match stats — Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş

38%Possession62%
13Shots19
8On target7
4Corners6
2.35xG1.19

Goals against chances

Trabzonspor2 from 2.35 xGabout what the chances were worth
Beşiktaş0 from 1.19 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Trabzonspor 4-2-3-1
  • 24André OnanaG
  • 20Wagner PinaD
  • 27Chibuike NwaiwuD
  • 15Stefan SavićD
  • 55Sidny Lopes CabralD
  • 11Ozan TufanM
  • 6FabinhoM
  • 10Mohamed SalahM
  • 7Ernest MuçiM
  • 58Aral ŞimşirM
  • 9Franculino DjúF
Substitutes
  • 26Tim Jabol-FolcarelliM
  • 70Noah SavioloF
  • 14Umut NayirF
  • 39Cenk ÖzkaçarD
  • 96Erol Can ÇolakG
  • 1Ahmet Doğan YıldırımG
  • 4Samet AkaydınD
  • 81Mustafa Kuzey AkcayD
  • 77Metehan MimaroğluF
Beşiktaş 4-1-4-1
  • 1Alexander NübelG
  • 62Amir MurilloD
  • 12Emmanuel AgbadouD
  • 53Emirhan TopçuD
  • 33Rıdvan YılmazD
  • 6Salih ÖzcanM
  • 18Václav ČernýM
  • 15Junior OlaitanM
  • 21Fabio MirettiM
  • 19Leandro TrossardM
  • 28Dušan VlahovićF
Substitutes
  • 11Kassoum OuattaraD
  • 29İlhan FakılıF
  • 9Hyeon-gyu OhF
  • 4Wilfred NdidiM
  • 8Kartal Kayra YılmazM
  • 80Doğan AlemdarG
  • 35Tiago DjalóD
  • 22Taylan BulutD
  • 50Ümit AkdağD

Form going into Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş

Trabzonspor

Süper Lig

  • W3-0away to Samsunspor10 October 2026

Beşiktaş

Süper Lig

  • W2-1Kocaelispor11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Süper Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Trabzonspor11812268+1825
4Beşiktaş117132312+1122

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş

  • 9 May 2026Beşiktaş 1–2 TrabzonsporSüper Lig
  • 14 December 2025Trabzonspor 3–3 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
  • 15 February 2025Beşiktaş 2–1 TrabzonsporSüper Lig
  • 15 September 2024Trabzonspor 1–1 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
  • 23 May 2024Beşiktaş 3–2 TrabzonsporTürkiye Kupası
  • 4 February 2024Beşiktaş 2–0 TrabzonsporSüper Lig

The full Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş record →

Leading scorers: Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş

Trabzonspor

GoalsAssists

  • Mohamed Salah93
  • Franculino Djú42
  • E. Muçi36

Beşiktaş

GoalsAssists

  • D. Vlahović90

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Trabzonspor beat Beşiktaş 2–0. The model had made a win for Trabzonspor its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: O. Tufan 21' for Trabzonspor, M. Salah 71' for Trabzonspor. On expected goals it finished 2.35–1.19.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Trabzonspor a 62.0% chance to finish in the top four: 68.5% after a win, 59.7% after a draw, 53.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 68.5%, 6.5 points higher than before the match.

For Beşiktaş the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 63.2% going in: 71.9% after a win, 63.3% after a draw, 58.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 58.3%, 4.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Süper Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Trabzonspor v Beşiktaş has moved

First published on 5 Oct at 40% / 28% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 46% / 25% / 29%: the biggest move is Trabzonspor's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Trabzonspor win46%▲ +6
  2. Draw25%▼ −3
  3. Beşiktaş win29%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.