Gaziantep FK vs Erzurumspor FK Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Gaziantep FK 1-3 Erzurumspor FK.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Gaziantep FK, 30% draw, 28% Erzurumspor FK — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Gaziantep FK at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gaziantep FK vs Erzurumspor FK
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25Kacper TobiaszG
- 2Luis PérezD
- 14Myenty AbenaD
- 21Abakar SyllaD
- 23Kerim ÇalhanoğluD
- 7Juninho BacunaM
- 18Deian SorescuM
- 3Drissa CamaraM
- 44Alexandru MaximM
- 10Kacper KozłowskiM
- 9Trivante StewartF
- 4Arda KızıldağD
- 19Serdar DursunF
- 77Sabahattin DesticiD
- 17Karamba GassamaM
- 28Halil DervişoğluF
- 35Ataberk DadakdenizG
- 5Efe SarıkayaD
- 8Gidado Victor Ntino-EmoM
- 11Mirza CihanM
- 1Ertuğrul TaşkıranG
- 53Orhan OvacıklıD
- 4Amar GerxhaliuD
- 22Mustafa YumluD
- 18Nihad MujakićD
- 15Guram GiorbelidzeD
- 6Brandon BaiyeM
- 42Elisha OwusuM
- 65Martín RodríguezM
- 10Eren TozluF
- 20Miguel CardosoF
- 3Yakup KırtayD
- 99Mustafa FettahogluF
- 19Ibrahim DiabatéF
- 9Gyrano KerkF
- 31Matija OrbanićG
- 2Festy EboseleD
- 23Cengizhan BayrakD
- 8Sefa AkgünM
- 77Lawrence AgyekumM
Form going into Gaziantep FK vs Erzurumspor FK
Gaziantep FK
Süper Lig
- L1-2away to Başakşehir18 October 2026
- L0-3Çorum FK11 October 2026
Erzurumspor FK
Süper Lig
- W2-0Eyüpspor17 October 2026
- D0-0away to Alanyaspor10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Gaziantep FK | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 8 |
| 12 | Erzurumspor FK | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Erzurumspor FK vs Gaziantep FK
Erzurumspor FK and Gaziantep FK have met 6 times in the records we hold, Erzurumspor FK has won 3 of them to Gaziantep FK's 0, with 3 drawn.
The record
Erzurumspor FK won the last one 3–1 on 24 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erzurumspor FK | 3 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 7 |
| Gaziantep FK | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 11 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 18 goals, an average of 3.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 24 Oct 2026
Süper LigGaziantep FK 1–3 Erzurumspor FK - 25 Apr 2021
Süper LigGaziantep FK 2–3 Erzurumspor FK - 2 Jan 2021
Süper LigErzurumspor FK 1–1 Gaziantep FK - 19 May 2018
1. LigGaziantep FK 0–0 Erzurumspor FK - 7 Apr 2018
1. LigErzurumspor FK 2–1 Gaziantep FK - 26 Nov 2017
1. LigGaziantep FK 2–2 Erzurumspor FK
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, the two attacks rate almost level, and Erzurumspor FK concede 11% fewer than Gaziantep FK. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Erzurumspor FK | 0.60 | 1.26 |
| Gaziantep FK | 0.60 | 1.42 |
The result against the call
Erzurumspor FK won 3–1 at Gaziantep FK. The model had leaned towards a win for Gaziantep FK at 42% and given a win for Erzurumspor FK 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: M. Cardoso 53' for Erzurumspor FK, A. Gerxhaliu 64' for Erzurumspor FK, K. Calhanoglu 71' for Gaziantep FK, G. Giorbelidze 90+5' for Erzurumspor FK. On expected goals it finished 1.15–0.65.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Gaziantep FK a 30.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 23.8% after a win, 32.2% after a draw, 40.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 40.0%, 9.5 points higher than before the match.
For Erzurumspor FK the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 27.2% going in: 19.6% after a win, 27.9% after a draw, 30.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 19.6%, 7.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Süper Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Gaziantep FK v Erzurumspor FK has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 49% / 28% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 42% / 30% / 28%: the biggest move is Gaziantep FK's chance of winning, down 7 points.
- Gaziantep FK win42%▼ −7
- Draw30%▲ +2
- Erzurumspor FK win28%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.