23 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Rot-Weiß Essen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg 3. Liga prediction & result

Stadion an der Hafenstrasse, Essen
Referee: Felix Grund
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Rot-Weiß Essen 1-0 SSV Jahn Regensburg.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Rot-Weiß Essen, 25% draw, 26% SSV Jahn Regensburg — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Rot-Weiß Essen at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rot-Weiß Essen96%Draw4%SSV Jahn Regensburg0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Lucas Brummeassist: Dickson Abiama
15'
🔁Jaka Cuber Potocnikout: Ruben Seyram Reisig
26'
Jose-Enrique Rios Alonso
35'
45'
🔁Leo Mätzlerout: Patrick Hobsch
Ruben Seyram Reisig
56'
65'
🔁David Lennart Philippout: Zeteny Jano
67'
Zeteny Jano
Lucas Brumme
71'
75'
Adrian Fein
🔁Noah Peschout: Nick Bätzner
76'
🔁Lucas Brummeout: Jannik Hofmann
76'
80'
🔁Lucas Hermesout: John Xaver Posselt
80'
🔁Nassim Boujellabout: Marco Womer
🔁Ekin Celebiout: Luca Bazzoli
90+1'

Match stats — Rot-Weiß Essen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg

60%Possession40%
14Shots5
5On target1
3Corners4

Line-ups

Rot-Weiß Essen 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. GolzG
  • 2M. KostkaD
  • 15Ben Vincent HüningD
  • 23J. Ríos AlonsoD
  • 26E. ÇelebiD
  • 22J. SietanM
  • 11Noah PeschM
  • 18D. AbiamaM
  • 9J. PotočnikM
  • 14L. BrummeM
  • 20M. JanssenF
Substitutes
  • 32L. BazzoliD
  • 25N. BätznerM
  • 36J. GnagnonD
  • 37J. HofmannD
  • 40Rami MalaebF
  • 16R. ReisigM
  • 33Eric VerstappenG
  • 35F. WienandG
  • 43F VasicF
Coach: U. Koschinat
SSV Jahn Regensburg 3-4-3
  • 1H. HermannG
  • 37Leopold WurmD
  • 5L. MühlD
  • 31L. MätzlerD
  • 25N. OliveiraM
  • 35S. HingerlM
  • 29A. FeinM
  • 7O. SchönfelderM
  • 8D. PhilippF
  • 27L. HermesF
  • 10N. BoujellabF
Substitutes
  • 26B. BauerD
  • 34P. HobschF
  • 21Z. JánóM
  • 44M. KarbsteinD
  • 13E. MajetschakM
  • 20J. PosseltF
  • 23M. SchmittG
  • 40J. SeiboldM
  • 11M. WörnerF
Coach: S. Hildmann

Form going into Rot-Weiß Essen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg

Rot-Weiß Essen

3. Liga

  • L0-1away to FC Ingolstadt 0417 October 2026
  • W2-0Fortuna Köln13 October 2026

SSV Jahn Regensburg

3. Liga

  • D0-0SV Wehen17 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Verl14 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

3. Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Rot-Weiß Essen138322113+827
16SSV Jahn Regensburg133462323013

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rot-Weiß Essen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg

  • 14 February 2026Rot-Weiß Essen 3–2 SSV Jahn Regensburg3. Liga
  • 12 September 2025SSV Jahn Regensburg 1–3 Rot-Weiß Essen3. Liga
  • 10 February 2024Jahn Regensburg 1–3 Rot-Weiß Essen3. Liga
  • 16 September 2023Rot-Weiß Essen 0–0 Jahn Regensburg3. Liga

Leading scorers: Rot-Weiß Essen and SSV Jahn Regensburg

Rot-Weiß Essen

No player in 3. Liga's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.

SSV Jahn Regensburg

GoalsAssists

  • L. Hermes62
  • N. Boujellab34

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Rot-Weiß Essen beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 1–0. The model had made a win for Rot-Weiß Essen its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Lucas Brumme 15' for Rot-Weiß Essen.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rot-Weiß Essen a 33.4% chance to finish in the top three: 37.3% after a win, 30.3% after a draw, 25.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 37.3%, 3.9 points higher than before the match.

For SSV Jahn Regensburg the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 16.3% going in: 10.6% after a win, 16.7% after a draw, 18.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 18.2%, 1.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 3. Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Rot-Weiß Essen v SSV Jahn Regensburg has moved

First published on 9 Oct at 56% / 24% / 20% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 49% / 25% / 26%: the biggest move is Rot-Weiß Essen's chance of winning, down 7 points.

  1. Rot-Weiß Essen win49%▼ −7
  2. Draw25%▲ +1
  3. SSV Jahn Regensburg win26%▲ +6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.