Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Alanyaspor 0-2 Trabzonspor.
Before kick-off the model made it 21% Alanyaspor, 25% draw, 54% Trabzonspor — fair odds of 4.76, 4.00 and 1.85.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Trabzonspor at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 48Paulo VictorG
- 3Nuno LimaD
- 4Bedirhan ÖzyurtD
- 5Fidan AlitiD
- 94Florent HadergjonajM
- 58MaestroM
- 55Baran Ali GezekM
- 88Yusuf ÖzdemirM
- 11Ruan Pereira DuarteF
- 17Arda UsluoğluF
- 16Hwang Ui-JoF
- 9Omar Ben AliF
- 8Enes KeskinM
- 7Ibrahim KayaF
- 23Mert Furkan BayramG
- 26İzzet ÇelikM
- 14Emre DemirM
- 42Gaius MakoutaM
- 12Meschak EliaF
- 10Ianis HagiM
- 24André OnanaG
- 20Wagner PinaD
- 27Chibuike NwaiwuD
- 15Stefan SavićD
- 55Sidny Lopes CabralD
- 11Ozan TufanM
- 6FabinhoM
- 7Ernest MuçiM
- 10Mohamed SalahF
- 30Paul OnuachuF
- 70Noah SavioloF
- 57Melih KabasakalM
- 19Mustafa EskihellaçD
- 77Metehan MimaroğluF
- 99Ali HabeşoğluF
- 1Ahmet Doğan YıldırımG
- 96Erol Can ÇolakG
- 4Samet AkaydınD
- 39Cenk ÖzkaçarD
- 14Umut NayirF
Form going into Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor
Alanyaspor
Süper Lig
- L0-5away to Gençlerbirliği S.K.2 November 2026
- L1-2Kocaelispor23 October 2026
- L0-3away to Fenerbahçe17 October 2026
- D0-0Erzurumspor FK10 October 2026
Trabzonspor
Süper Lig
- W2-0Gaziantep FK1 November 2026
- W4-3away to Rizespor26 October 2026
- W2-0Beşiktaş19 October 2026
- W3-0away to Samsunspor10 October 2026
What these results say
- Alanyaspor did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Alanyaspor failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Alanyaspor conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Trabzonspor won every one of these 4 matches.
- Trabzonspor scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Trabzonspor kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Alanyaspor | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 12 |
| 2 | Trabzonspor | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 8 | +18 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor
- 11 April 2026Alanyaspor 1–1 TrabzonsporSüper Lig
- 17 December 2025Trabzonspor 0–1 AlanyasporTürkiye Kupası
- 8 November 2025Trabzonspor 1–1 AlanyasporSüper Lig
- 27 April 2025Trabzonspor 4–3 AlanyasporSüper Lig
- 8 January 2025Trabzonspor 3–0 AlanyasporTürkiye Kupası
- 30 November 2024Alanyaspor 2–1 TrabzonsporSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor
Alanyaspor
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Trabzonspor
GoalsAssists
- Mohamed Salah93
- Franculino Djú42
- E. Muçi36
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Trabzonspor won 2–0 at Alanyaspor. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Trabzonspor at 54%. The goals: W. Pina 17' for Trabzonspor, M. Salah 34' for Trabzonspor. On expected goals it finished 2.04–2.61.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Alanyaspor a 19.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 11.7% after a win, 17.3% after a draw, 21.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.6%, 2.3 points higher than before the match.
For Trabzonspor the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 77.2% going in: 80.8% after a win, 75.1% after a draw, 69.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 80.8%, 3.6 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Süper Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Alanyaspor v Trabzonspor has moved
First published on 25 Oct at 25% / 27% / 48% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 21% / 25% / 54%: the biggest move is Trabzonspor's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Alanyaspor win21%▼ −4
- Draw25%▼ −2
- Trabzonspor win54%▲ +6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.