8 November 2026, 13:00 UTC

Çorum FK vs Fenerbahçe Süper Lig prediction & result

Corum Stadyumu, Corum
Referee: A. B. Taskinsoy
Full time0 – 5

Final score: Çorum FK 0-5 Fenerbahçe.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% Çorum FK, 23% draw, 47% Fenerbahçe — fair odds of 3.33, 4.35 and 2.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Fenerbahçe at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Çorum FK0%Draw1%Fenerbahçe99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
⚽M. Greenwoodassist: O. Aydin
21'
⚽I. Kahveciassist: R. Lukaku
M. Diomande
38'
54'
N. Semedo
56'
⚽I. Kahveciassist: M. Guendouzi
57'
🔁I. Kahveciout: N. Kante
57'
🔁R. Lukakuout: V. Muriqi
🔁E. Mahmicout: Y. Moukoko
58'
🔁C. Underout: E. Gurluk
61'
63'
⚽M. Greenwoodassist: L. Mercan
64'
🔁N. Semedoout: M. Muldur
64'
🔁M. Greenwoodout: K. Akturkoglu
🔁Alexandre Penetraout: A. Sengul
65'
74'
⚽O. Aydinassist: K. Akturkoglu
77'
🔁M. Guendouziout: M. Yandas

Match stats — Çorum FK vs Fenerbahçe

39%Possession61%
22Shots10
8On target6
7Corners1
2xG1.3

Goals against chances

Çorum FK0 from 2.00 xGless than the chances were worth
Fenerbahçe5 from 1.30 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Çorum FK 4-2-3-1
  • 1Marcos FelipeG
  • 5Alexandre PenetraD
  • 2Çağlar SöyüncüD
  • 6Hrvoje SmolčićD
  • 24Andrei BorzaD
  • 20Ylber RamadaniM
  • 26Ermin MahmićM
  • 7Cengiz ÜnderM
  • 10Mohammed DiomandeM
  • 89Alexandros KyziridisM
  • 19Jesús RamírezF
Substitutes
  • 14Youssoufa MoukokoF
  • 17Emircan GürlükF
  • 15Arda ŞengülD
  • 18Erhan ErentürkG
  • 4Serdar SaatçıD
  • 22Huseyin BulutD
  • 21Göktan GürpüzM
  • 8Markus KarlsbakkM
  • 30Ahmed IldızM
Fenerbahçe 4-2-3-1
  • 31EdersonG
  • 27Nélson SemedoD
  • 37Milan ŠkriniarD
  • 21Kojo Peprah OppongD
  • 22Levent MercanD
  • 6Mattéo GuendouziM
  • 5İsmail YüksekM
  • 11Mason GreenwoodM
  • 17İrfan Can KahveciM
  • 70Oğuz AydınM
  • 9Romelu LukakuF
Substitutes
  • 91N'Golo KantéM
  • 19Vedat MuriqiF
  • 18Mert MüldürD
  • 7Kerem AktürkoğluF
  • 8Mert Hakan YandaşM
  • 34Mert GünokG
  • 14Yiğit Efe DemirD
  • 77Ognjen MimovićD
  • 28Bartuğ ElmazM

Form going into Çorum FK vs Fenerbahçe

Çorum FK

Süper Lig

  • W3-1away to Erzurumspor FK31 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Göztepe25 October 2026
  • W2-1Rizespor16 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Gaziantep FK11 October 2026

Fenerbahçe

Süper Lig

  • L1-2Göztepe31 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Galatasaray26 October 2026
  • W3-0Alanyaspor17 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Rizespor10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Çorum FK won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Çorum FK scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Çorum FK conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Fenerbahçe scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Fenerbahçe had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Süper Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Çorum FK115152121016
6Fenerbahçe116142910+1919

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Çorum FK and Fenerbahçe

Çorum FK

GoalsAssists

  • C. Ramírez61
  • A. Kyziridis44
  • C. Ünder42

Fenerbahçe

GoalsAssists

  • V. Muriqi71
  • M. Greenwood62
  • İ. Kahveci53

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Fenerbahçe won 5–0 at Çorum FK. The model had made a win for Fenerbahçe its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: M. Greenwood 12' for Fenerbahçe, I. Kahveci 21' for Fenerbahçe, I. Kahveci 56' for Fenerbahçe, M. Greenwood 63' for Fenerbahçe, O. Aydin 74' for Fenerbahçe. On expected goals it finished 2.00–1.30.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Çorum FK a 10.4% chance to finish in the top four: 15.0% after a win, 9.8% after a draw, 7.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.0%, 3.4 points lower than before the match.

For Fenerbahçe the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 57.4% going in: 62.6% after a win, 56.3% after a draw, 48.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 62.6%, 5.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Süper Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Çorum FK v Fenerbahçe has moved

First published on 25 Oct at 27% / 22% / 51% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 30% / 23% / 47%: the biggest move is Fenerbahçe's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Çorum FK win30%▲ +3
  2. Draw23%▲ +1
  3. Fenerbahçe win47%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.