Beşiktaş vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Beşiktaş 3-0 Gençlerbirliği S.K..
Before kick-off the model made it 61% Beşiktaş, 22% draw, 17% Gençlerbirliği S.K. — fair odds of 1.64, 4.55 and 5.88.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Beşiktaş at 61%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Beşiktaş vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Alexander NübelG
- 62Amir MurilloD
- 12Emmanuel AgbadouD
- 53Emirhan TopçuD
- 33Rıdvan YılmazD
- 6Salih ÖzcanM
- 19Leandro TrossardM
- 4Wilfred NdidiM
- 10Orkun KökçüM
- 29İlhan FakılıM
- 28Dušan VlahovićF
- 22Taylan BulutD
- 8Kartal Kayra YılmazM
- 15Junior OlaitanM
- 17Ernest PokuF
- 90Semih KılıçsoyF
- 80Doğan AlemdarG
- 11Kassoum OuattaraD
- 35Tiago DjalóD
- 18Václav ČernýF
- 70İrfan Can EğribayatG
- 15Arda Cagan CelikD
- 90Metehan BaltacıD
- 2ThalissonD
- 3Yiğit Hamza AydarD
- 19Cheikh NiasseM
- 35Oğulcan ÜlgünM
- 14Adama Malouda TraoréM
- 10Franco TongyaM
- 7Tiago GouveiaM
- 9Pedro MendesF
- 42Ousmane DiabateM
- 88Fıratcan ÜzümD
- 83Rafael LuisM
- 48Salih UçanM
- 20Sekou KoitaF
- 23Gökhan AkkanG
- 77Abdurrahim DursunD
- 52Göktug ErdemM
- 45Prince MartorF
Form going into Beşiktaş vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Beşiktaş
Süper Lig
- D2-2away to Kasımpaşa1 November 2026
- W2-0Başakşehir26 October 2026
- L0-2away to Trabzonspor19 October 2026
- W2-1Kocaelispor11 October 2026
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Süper Lig
- W5-0Alanyaspor2 November 2026
- L0-2away to Konyaspor25 October 2026
- L0-1Galatasaray17 October 2026
- D2-2Amed10 October 2026
What these results say
- Beşiktaş scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Beşiktaş conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 22 |
| 14 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Beşiktaş vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.
- 15 March 2026Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0–2 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
- 18 October 2025Beşiktaş 1–2 Gençlerbirliği S.K.Süper Lig
- 27 July 2024Beşiktaş 2–0 Gençlerbirliği S.K.Friendlies Clubs
- 15 February 2021Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0–3 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
- 4 October 2020Beşiktaş 0–1 Gençlerbirliği S.K.Süper Lig
- 25 July 2020Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0–3 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Beşiktaş and Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Beşiktaş
GoalsAssists
- D. Vlahović90
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Beşiktaş beat Gençlerbirliği S.K. 3–0. The model had made a win for Beşiktaş its most likely outcome, at 61%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: D. Vlahovic 20' for Beşiktaş, D. Vlahovic 45' for Beşiktaş, E. Poku 85' for Beşiktaş. Sent off: M. Baltaci (Gençlerbirliği S.K.) 22'. On expected goals it finished 4.09–0.18.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Beşiktaş a 53.2% chance to finish in the top four: 57.1% after a win, 47.4% after a draw, 44.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 57.1%, 3.9 points higher than before the match.
For Gençlerbirliği S.K. the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 10.5% going in: 5.1% after a win, 8.6% after a draw, 11.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.6%, 1.1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Süper Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Beşiktaş v Gençlerbirliği S.K. has moved
First published on 25 Oct at 64% / 21% / 15% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 61% / 22% / 17%: the biggest move is Beşiktaş's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Beşiktaş win61%▼ −3
- Draw22%▲ +1
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. win17%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.