Stuttgart II vs Verl 3. Liga prediction & result
Final score: Stuttgart II 1-0 Verl.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Stuttgart II, 25% draw, 31% Verl — fair odds of 2.27, 4.00 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Stuttgart II at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Stuttgart II vs Verl
Line-ups
- 1Jerik von der FelsenG
- 17A. JanjicD
- 6A. GroißD
- 46D. ZagadouD
- 24Joyeux Masanka BungiD
- 7L. PennaM
- 31V. StangeM
- 30J. MajchrzakM
- 27Jarzinho Ataide Adriano de Nascimento MalangaM
- 19E. YigitF
- 9T. van der LeijF
- 22J. BockG
- 38Eliot BujupiF
- 4Maximilian Tobias HerwerthD
- 18J. LuersM
- 29D. NothnagelD
- 40P. ReinhardtD
- 23Collin SchrammD
- 10N. SessaM
- 42Brayann KenmoeF
- 1T. SchlieckG
- 14P. LehmannD
- 22N. KönigD
- 5Nick SeidelD
- 19N. KijewskiD
- 30A. MešanovićM
- 8D. WaidnerM
- 23K. RabihićM
- 20A. LeipoldF
- 17Y. OttoF
- 25T. HeikeF
- 32F. PekruhlG
- 2Raphael AraoyeD
- 11M. KaubeM
- 34Janne BernerD
- 18F. WessigM
- 10B. YalcinkayaM
- 9A. JapaurF
- 26A. FótiM
- 7A. FaroukM
Form going into Stuttgart II vs Verl
Stuttgart II
3. Liga
- D3-3away to MSV Duisburg31 October 2026
- L1-2Alemannia Aachen24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Fortuna Köln16 October 2026
- W3-2Hoffenheim II13 October 2026
Verl
3. Liga
- L1-4SV Wehen31 October 2026
- L1-3away to FC Viktoria Köln24 October 2026
- L1-2away to Hoffenheim II18 October 2026
- D2-2SSV Jahn Regensburg14 October 2026
What these results say
- Stuttgart II scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Stuttgart II conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Stuttgart II had three goals or more.
- Verl did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Verl scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Verl conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Stuttgart II | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 18 |
| 17 | Verl | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 27 | -10 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Stuttgart II vs Verl
- 1 February 2026Verl 4–0 Stuttgart II3. Liga
- 23 August 2025Stuttgart II 1–1 Verl3. Liga
- 19 April 2025Stuttgart II 1–1 Verl3. Liga
- 23 November 2024Verl 2–2 Stuttgart II3. Liga
Leading scorers: Stuttgart II and Verl
Stuttgart II
GoalsAssists
- T. van der Leij40
Verl
No player in 3. Liga's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Stuttgart II beat Verl 1–0. The model had made a win for Stuttgart II its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Tim van der Leij (penalty) 66' for Stuttgart II.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Stuttgart II a 11.7% chance to finish in the bottom four: 8.5% after a win, 12.5% after a draw, 14.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.5%, 3.2 points lower than before the match.
For Verl the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 16.9% going in: 10.6% after a win, 16.1% after a draw, 20.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 20.0%, 3.1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our 3. Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Stuttgart II v Verl has moved
First published on 25 Oct at 39% / 26% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 44% / 25% / 31%: the biggest move is Stuttgart II's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Stuttgart II win44%▲ +5
- Draw25%▼ −1
- Verl win31%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.