Eibar vs Granada CF Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Eibar 3-0 Granada CF.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Eibar, 29% draw, 35% Granada CF — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Eibar at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Eibar vs Granada CF
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13J. MagunagoitiaG
- 22A. RodriguezD
- 4U. ElgezabalD
- 23A. ArbillaD
- 24J. BernatD
- 30A. GarridoM
- 8A. MadariagaM
- 7A. AresM
- 21I. GilM
- 10J. GuruzetaM
- 9J. BautistaF
- 1L. LopezG
- 2S. CuberoD
- 15J. AmadorD
- 18M. AranaD
- 28L. NunezM
- 17PejinoF
- 20Javier MartonF
- 32C. LumbrerasF
- 29I. ZubiriaF
- 13R. LizoainG
- 18S. LopezD
- 5M. LamaD
- 35B. DembeleD
- 16D. Varela PampinD
- 6G. GumbauM
- 4R. AlcarazM
- 8P. AlemanM
- 36O. M. ChukwuemekaF
- 19C. OnouhaF
- 11J. M. ArnaizF
- 1A. FloresG
- 23B. GimberD
- 3D. HormigoD
- 30JuanjoD
- 33A. GarciaD
- 27M. Jimenez GambinM
- 32D. RodriguezM
- 9A. MarquesF
- 10J. PascualF
Form going into Eibar vs Granada CF
Eibar
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to FC Andorra30 August 2026
- W1-0Valladolid23 August 2026
- L1-3Tenerife16 August 2026
Granada CF
All competitions we cover
- W3-1away to Cordoba30 August 2026
- W2-0Mallorca24 August 2026
- D0-0away to Oviedo15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Eibar | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 14 | +7 | 23 |
| 7 | Granada CF | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Eibar vs Granada CF
- 19 January 2026Granada CF 0–0 EibarSegunda División
- 22 August 2025Eibar 3–0 Granada CFSegunda División
- 12 May 2025Granada CF 0–2 EibarSegunda División
- 21 December 2024Eibar 1–1 Granada CFSegunda División
- 30 April 2023Granada CF 1–1 EibarSegunda División
- 12 September 2022Eibar 4–0 Granada CFSegunda División
Leading scorers: Eibar and Granada CF
Eibar
GoalsAssists
- Iván Gil41
Granada CF
GoalsAssists
- Jorge Pascual40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Eibar beat Granada CF 3–0. The model had made a win for Eibar its most likely outcome, at 36%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: I. Gil 8' for Eibar, A. Ares 44' for Eibar, J. Guruzeta 58' for Eibar. Sent off: Jair Amador (Eibar) 76'. On expected goals it finished 1.49–0.49.
How the call on Eibar v Granada CF has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 39% / 29% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 36% / 29% / 35%: the biggest move is Eibar's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Eibar win36%▼ −3
- Draw29%=
- Granada CF win35%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.