Albania vs San Marino UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Albania 2-1 San Marino.
Before kick-off the model made it 65% Albania, 23% draw, 12% San Marino — fair odds of 1.54, 4.35 and 8.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Albania at 65%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Albania vs San Marino
Line-ups
- 23M. DajsinaniG
- 4E. HysajD
- 6B. DjimsitiD
- 18A. IsmajliD
- 3M. MitajD
- 16J. ShehuM
- 8K. AsllaniM
- 22S. PiliosM
- 10E. MuçiF
- 7R. ManajF
- 21A. HoxhaF
- 2K. CakeD
- 19M. DakuF
- 5L. HasaM
- 15M. KumbullaD
- 9A. MehmetiM
- 20Y. RamadaniM
- 17T. SeferiF
- 14C. ShpendiF
- 1S. SimoniG
- 1E. ColomboG
- 4F. FabbriD
- 5M. CevoliD
- 6D. RossiD
- 3S. GiocondiD
- 8L. CapicchioniM
- 16C. MeloniM
- 18Balda Enea DellaM
- 10S. ZannoniM
- 14Fausto Marino Salicioni OrtizF
- 11N. GiacopettiF
- 15M. PasoliniD
- 19S. PancottiF
- 20G. BugliD
- 13Lyes HoëlG
- 9Nicholas ProttiF
- 7G. CapicchioniF
- 22M. MularoniM
- 21L. LazzariM
- 17A. GolinucciM
Form going into Albania vs San Marino
Albania
UEFA Nations League
- L1-2away to Finland3 October 2026
- W3-0away to San Marino29 September 2026
- W2-0Belarus26 September 2026
San Marino
UEFA Nations League
- L0-4away to Belarus3 October 2026
- L0-3Albania29 September 2026
- L0-7Finland26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Albania | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 12 |
| 4 | San Marino | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 18 | -17 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Albania vs San Marino
- 29 September 2026San Marino 0–3 AlbaniaUEFA Nations League
- 8 September 2021Albania 5–0 San MarinoWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
- 31 March 2021San Marino 0–2 AlbaniaWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
Leading scorers: Albania and San Marino
Albania
GoalsAssists
- R. Manaj31
San Marino
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Albania beat San Marino 2–1. The model had made a win for Albania its most likely outcome, at 65%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Kristjan Asllani 11' for Albania, Lorenzo Lazzari 66' for San Marino, Kristjan Asllani (penalty) 90+3' for Albania.
How the call on Albania v San Marino has moved
First published on 30 Sep at 49% / 30% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 65% / 23% / 12%: the biggest move is Albania's chance of winning, up 16 points.
- Albania win65%▲ +16
- Draw23%▼ −7
- San Marino win12%▼ −9
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.