Moldova vs Slovakia UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Moldova 0-4 Slovakia.
Before kick-off the model made it 20% Moldova, 27% draw, 53% Slovakia — fair odds of 5.00, 3.70 and 1.89.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Slovakia at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Moldova vs Slovakia
Line-ups
- 12D. CeleadnicG
- 21I. RevencoD
- 4V. BabogloD
- 18I. IovuD
- 6M. GherasimencovD
- 2O. ReabciukD
- 14Vladimir FrateaM
- 22V. RaţăM
- 9S. PerciunM
- 15Petru PopescuF
- 20N. CleșcencoF
- 5C. CucoșD
- 13S. CojocariM
- 17O. DavidM
- 8C. DrosM
- 19D. DumbrăvanuD
- 16D. ForovF
- 23A. KozhukharG
- 10D. MandrîcencoM
- 7N. MoțpanM
- 23D. GreifG
- 2I. MesíkD
- 14M. ŠkriniarD
- 21A. ObertD
- 16D. HanckoD
- 22S. LobotkaM
- 8O. DudaM
- 18I. SchranzM
- 10T. SuslovM
- 17L. HaraslínM
- 15D. StrelecF
- 3D. VavroD
- 4M. ValjentD
- 12J. SurovčíkG
- 7L. SauerF
- 5Ľ. ŠatkaD
- 19T. RigoM
- 20E. PrekopF
- 6P. PokornýM
- 13A. KaprálikF
Form going into Moldova vs Slovakia
Moldova
UEFA Nations League
- W2-1away to Kazakhstan2 October 2026
- D1-1Faroe Islands29 September 2026
- L0-2away to Slovakia26 September 2026
Slovakia
UEFA Nations League
- D1-1away to Faroe Islands2 October 2026
- W2-1Kazakhstan29 September 2026
- W2-0Moldova26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Moldova | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 7 |
| 1 | Slovakia | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Moldova vs Slovakia
- 26 September 2026Slovakia 2–0 MoldovaUEFA Nations League
Leading scorers: Moldova and Slovakia
Moldova
GoalsAssists
- Petru Popescu30
Slovakia
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Slovakia won 4–0 at Moldova. The model had made a win for Slovakia its most likely outcome, at 53%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: David Strelec 8' for Slovakia, Tomas Suslov 44' for Slovakia, Dávid Hancko 60' for Slovakia, Lukáš Haraslín 75' for Slovakia.
How the call on Moldova v Slovakia has moved
First published on 30 Sep at 22% / 25% / 53% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 20% / 27% / 53%: the biggest move is Moldova's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Moldova win20%▼ −2
- Draw27%▲ +2
- Slovakia win53%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.