Croatia vs Spain UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Croatia 1-2 Spain.
Before kick-off the model made it 23% Croatia, 28% draw, 49% Spain — fair odds of 4.35, 3.57 and 2.04.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Nations League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Spain at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Croatia vs Spain
Line-ups
- 1D. LivakovićG
- 2J. StanišićD
- 6J. ŠutaloD
- 5L. VuškovićD
- 4J. GvardiolD
- 13N. VlašićM
- 10L. ModrićM
- 18K. JakićM
- 8M. KovačićM
- 14I. PerišićM
- 20I. MatanovićF
- 7D. BeljoF
- 22J. MišićM
- 19Marco PasalicF
- 3M. PongračićD
- 15Mario PasalicM
- 12I. PandurG
- 16M. BaturinaM
- 21L. SučićM
- 11A. BudimirF
- 23Unai SimónG
- 12Marc PubillD
- 5Pau Cubarsí ParedesD
- 14Aymeric LaporteD
- 22Marc CucurellaD
- 16RodriM
- 20PedriM
- 19Lamine YamalM
- 10Dani OlmoM
- 15Álex BaenaM
- 21Mikel OyarzabalF
- 4Iván FresnedaD
- 17Fran GarcíaD
- 2D. HuijsenD
- 3Robin Le NormandD
- 13Josep MartínezG
- 6Mikel MerinoM
- 7Víctor MuñozF
- 11Yeremy PinoM
- 1David RayaG
Form going into Croatia vs Spain
Croatia
UEFA Nations League
- L0-7England3 October 2026
- L1-4away to Spain29 September 2026
- W2-1away to Czech Republic26 September 2026
Spain
UEFA Nations League
- W3-1Czech Republic3 October 2026
- W4-1Croatia29 September 2026
- W3-2away to England26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Croatia | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 3 |
| 1 | Spain | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Croatia vs Spain
- 29 September 2026Spain 4–1 CroatiaUEFA Nations League
- 15 June 2024Spain 3–0 CroatiaEuro Championship
- 18 June 2023Croatia 0–0 SpainUEFA Nations League
- 28 June 2021Croatia 3–5 SpainEuro Championship
- 15 November 2018Croatia 3–2 SpainUEFA Nations League
Leading scorers: Croatia and Spain
Croatia
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Spain
GoalsAssists
- Lamine Yamal41
- Mikel Merino31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Spain won 2–1 at Croatia. The model had made a win for Spain its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Ivan Perišić 17' for Croatia, Mikel Merino 61' for Spain, Mikel Merino 88' for Spain. Sent off: Ivan Perišić (Croatia) 79'.