Luxembourg vs Bulgaria UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Luxembourg 0-2 Bulgaria.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Luxembourg, 32% draw, 29% Bulgaria — fair odds of 2.56, 3.13 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Luxembourg at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Luxembourg vs Bulgaria
Line-ups
- 1A. MorisG
- 4F. BohnertD
- 5V. SelimovićD
- 13D. CarlsonD
- 14E. VeigaD
- 6J. de Sousa Moreira CruzM
- 8E. de Pina Duarte dos SantosM
- 15Omar NatamiM
- 11V. ThillM
- 17H. KadamaniM
- 9Jayson Videira PereiraF
- 2E. DžogovićD
- 7Aiman DardariF
- 23L. FoxG
- 18S. IkeneD
- 16T. KipsG
- 22M. MartinsD
- 19M. OlesenM
- 12T. Pereira CardosoG
- 10T. RupilM
- 1D. NaumovG
- 2Y. StoyanovD
- 13S. VelkovD
- 6E. TsenovD
- 15H. PetrovD
- 8A. KraevM
- 4I. GruevM
- 17M. MinchevM
- 11G. RusevM
- 18K. BalovM
- 9A. IlievF
- 14A. ChandarovM
- 19I. TuritsovD
- 7B. TsonevM
- 22K. StoyanovM
- 20V. NikolovF
- 12D. MitovG
- 21S. IvanovF
- 3A. HristovD
- 10Z. DimitrovF
Form going into Luxembourg vs Bulgaria
Luxembourg
UEFA Nations League
- L0-1away to Estonia3 October 2026
- L0-3Iceland29 September 2026
- W2-1away to Bulgaria26 September 2026
Bulgaria
UEFA Nations League
- L0-3away to Iceland3 October 2026
- D0-0Estonia29 September 2026
- L1-2Luxembourg26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Luxembourg | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 |
| 3 | Bulgaria | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Luxembourg vs Bulgaria
- 26 September 2026Bulgaria 1–2 LuxembourgUEFA Nations League
- 15 November 2024Luxembourg 0–1 BulgariaUEFA Nations League
- 12 October 2024Bulgaria 0–0 LuxembourgUEFA Nations League
- 20 November 2022Luxembourg 0–0 BulgariaFriendlies
- 10 October 2017Luxembourg 1–1 BulgariaWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
The result against the call
Bulgaria won 2–0 at Luxembourg. The model had leaned towards a win for Luxembourg at 39% and given a win for Bulgaria 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Kristiyan Balov 19' for Bulgaria, Atanas Iliev 34' for Bulgaria.
How the call on Luxembourg v Bulgaria has moved
First published on 30 Sep at 31% / 30% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 39% / 32% / 29%: the biggest move is Bulgaria's chance of winning, down 10 points.
- Luxembourg win39%▲ +8
- Draw32%▲ +2
- Bulgaria win29%▼ −10
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.