Belarus vs Finland UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Belarus 1-0 Finland.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Belarus, 29% draw, 37% Finland — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Nations League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Finland at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Belarus vs Finland
Line-ups
- 21F. LapoukhovG
- 5V. KalininD
- 20Z. VolkovD
- 13K. GomanovD
- 2K. PecheninD
- 4V. BocherovM
- 8A. SelyavaM
- 19A. LukashovM
- 9M. EbongM
- 7A. ShumanskiyM
- 11G. BarkovskiyF
- 10V. GromykoM
- 15D. GalyataM
- 22A. KontsevoyM
- 16A. KovalevM
- 12A. KudravetsG
- 17V. LisakovichF
- 18E. MalashevichM
- 23T. MelnichenkoF
- 1P. PavlyuchenkoG
- 1L. HrádeckýG
- 13J. LähteenmäkiD
- 15M. TenhoD
- 5S. MiettinenD
- 17R. MahutaD
- 11A. MarhievM
- 2M. PeltolaM
- 10L. WaltaM
- 9A. SvanbäckF
- 18T. KeskinenF
- 8O. ValakariF
- 23L. BergströmG
- 22D. HåkansM
- 14O. JukkolaM
- 19B. KällmanF
- 4T. MiettinenD
- 20J. PohjanpaloF
- 12V. SinisaloG
- 3A. StåhlD
- 16A. SuhonenM
Form going into Belarus vs Finland
Belarus
UEFA Nations League
- W4-0San Marino3 October 2026
- D0-0away to Finland29 September 2026
- L0-2away to Albania26 September 2026
Finland
UEFA Nations League
- W2-1Albania3 October 2026
- D0-0Belarus29 September 2026
- W7-0away to San Marino26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Belarus | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
| 3 | Finland | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Belarus vs Finland
- 29 September 2026Finland 0–0 BelarusUEFA Nations League
- 9 June 2018Finland 2–0 BelarusFriendlies
Leading scorers: Belarus and Finland
Belarus
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Finland
GoalsAssists
- L. Walta41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Belarus beat Finland 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Finland at 37% and given a win for Belarus 34%. The goal: Artem Shumanskiy 1' for Belarus.
How the call on Belarus v Finland has moved
First published on 30 Sep at 42% / 29% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 34% / 29% / 37%: the biggest move is Belarus's chance of winning, down 8 points.
- Belarus win34%▼ −8
- Draw29%=
- Finland win37%▲ +8
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.