Kazakhstan vs Faroe Islands UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Kazakhstan 2-2 Faroe Islands.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Kazakhstan, 32% draw, 33% Faroe Islands — fair odds of 2.86, 3.13 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Kazakhstan at 35%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Kazakhstan vs Faroe Islands
Line-ups
- 12T. AnarbekovG
- 6A. KassymD
- 2S. MaliyD
- 3N. AlipD
- 14N. ZhagorovM
- 5I. KuatM
- 7G. ZhukovM
- 13S. BasmanovM
- 10M. SamorodovM
- 9B. IslamkhanM
- 19R. KarimovF
- 4A. AshirbekM
- 8Z. AmirD
- 21E. AstanovM
- 23I. BekbolatF
- 18D. KaramanM
- 15D. KasabulatD
- 1S. PokatilovG
- 20A. ShirobokovD
- 17A. ShushenachevF
- 1M. LamhaugeG
- 15O. FærøD
- 16G. VatnhamarD
- 8H. VatnsdalD
- 2J. DanielsenM
- 21G. TuriM
- 7J. BjartalíðM
- 13M. AgnarssonM
- 10Á. SamuelsenF
- 11P. KnudsenF
- 20H. SørensenF
- 19J. BenjaminsenD
- 4S. ChukwudiD
- 17Á. DamM
- 3V. í DavidsenD
- 22M. HellisdalM
- 14P. KallsbergF
- 9J. NielsenF
- 12A. PetersenG
- 23B. ReynatrodG
Form going into Kazakhstan vs Faroe Islands
Kazakhstan
UEFA Nations League
- L1-2Moldova2 October 2026
- L1-2away to Slovakia29 September 2026
- D1-1away to Faroe Islands26 September 2026
Faroe Islands
UEFA Nations League
- D1-1Slovakia2 October 2026
- D1-1away to Moldova29 September 2026
- D1-1Kazakhstan26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 2 |
| 3 | Faroe Islands | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Kazakhstan vs Faroe Islands
- 26 September 2026Faroe Islands 1–1 KazakhstanUEFA Nations League
- 18 November 2025Faroe Islands 1–0 KazakhstanFriendlies
The result against the call
Kazakhstan and Faroe Islands drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Kazakhstan at 35% and given a draw 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Petur Knudsen 22' for Faroe Islands, Géza Dávid Turi 63' for Faroe Islands, Sergey Malyy 68' for Kazakhstan, Nuraly Alip 76' for Kazakhstan. Sent off: Martin Agnarsson (Faroe Islands) 65', Sergey Malyy (Kazakhstan) 85'.