Estonia vs Iceland UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Estonia 0-0 Iceland.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% Estonia, 33% draw, 41% Iceland — fair odds of 3.85, 3.03 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Nations League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Iceland at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Estonia vs Iceland
Line-ups
- 12M. IgonenG
- 3M. PaskotšiD
- 2M. KuuskD
- 5E. TõugjasD
- 6R. PeetsonM
- 14P. KristalM
- 20M. PoomM
- 10K. PalumetsM
- 13J. SalisteM
- 7R. SaarmaF
- 17M. MännilaanF
- 1E. GrünvaldG
- 11M. AinsaluM
- 4M. KäitM
- 23F. LiivakM
- 9Karel MustmaaF
- 19M. Schjønning-LarsenD
- 15M. SkvortsovM
- 8M. SoometsM
- 21A. TammF
- 12H. ValdimarssonG
- 4V. PálssonD
- 16S. ÞórðarsonD
- 23H. MagnússonD
- 3D. GrétarssonD
- 10G. SigurðssonM
- 8Í. Bergmann JóhannessonM
- 7H. HaraldssonM
- 22A. GuðjohnsenM
- 18M. AndersonM
- 9O. ÓskarssonF
- 14B. WillumssonF
- 2L. TómassonD
- 5Í. ÞorvaldssonF
- 11J. ÞorsteinssonF
- 21A. SigurðssonM
- 15A. SampstedD
- 1R. RúnarssonG
- 20Þ. HelgasonM
- 17A. GunnarssonM
Form going into Estonia vs Iceland
Estonia
UEFA Nations League
- W1-0Luxembourg3 October 2026
- D0-0away to Bulgaria29 September 2026
- D1-1away to Iceland26 September 2026
Iceland
UEFA Nations League
- W3-0Bulgaria3 October 2026
- W3-0away to Luxembourg29 September 2026
- D1-1Estonia26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Estonia | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 9 |
| 1 | Iceland | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 1 | +11 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Estonia vs Iceland
- 26 September 2026Iceland 1–1 EstoniaUEFA Nations League
- 8 January 2023Iceland 1–1 EstoniaFriendlies
Leading scorers: Estonia and Iceland
Estonia
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Iceland
GoalsAssists
- A. Guðjohnsen51
- O. Óskarsson42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Estonia and Iceland drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Iceland at 41% and given a draw 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one.
How the call on Estonia v Iceland has moved
First published on 30 Sep at 39% / 30% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 26% / 33% / 41%: the biggest move is Estonia's chance of winning, down 13 points.
- Estonia win26%▼ −13
- Draw33%▲ +3
- Iceland win41%▲ +10
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.