UTC Cajamarca
vs
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Primera División prediction
Our model says: UTC Cajamarca 1–0 Club Deportivo Los Chankas
The model makes it 43% UTC Cajamarca, 28% draw, 29% Club Deportivo Los Chankas — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: UTC Cajamarca 1.54, Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1.18.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. UTC Cajamarca's rating is built from 69 Primera División (Peru) matches and Club Deportivo Los Chankas's from 68, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- UTC Cajamarca are bottom on 14 points from 33 games; Club Deportivo Los Chankas are 10th on 48 points from 33 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- UTC Cajamarca have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Sport Boys.
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Alianza Lima.
- Last 5 meetings: UTC Cajamarca 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 31 May 2026, ended Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2–2 UTC Cajamarca.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: UTC Cajamarca vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Has the model earned this number?
UTC Cajamarca at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into UTC Cajamarca vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas
UTC Cajamarca
Primera División
- D0-0away to Sport Boys8 November 2026
- L2-3Deportivo Garcilaso2 November 2026
- W3-1away to FC Cajamarca28 October 2026
- L1-2FBC Melgar23 October 2026
- L0-1away to Cienciano18 October 2026
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Primera División
- D1-1Alianza Lima8 November 2026
- D0-0away to UCV Moquegua1 November 2026
- L0-1Cusco29 October 2026
- L1-4away to Deportivo Garcilaso25 October 2026
- W2-1ADT16 October 2026
What these results say
- UTC Cajamarca failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- UTC Cajamarca conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Peru Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 33 | 5 | 9 | 19 | 38 | 58 | -20 | 14 |
| 10 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 33 | 13 | 9 | 11 | 40 | 52 | -12 | 48 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: UTC Cajamarca vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas
- 31 May 2026Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2–2 UTC CajamarcaPrimera División
- 29 September 2025UTC Cajamarca 2–0 Club Deportivo Los ChankasPrimera División
- 11 May 2025Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2–1 UTC CajamarcaPrimera División
- 19 September 2024Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1–1 UTC CajamarcaPrimera División
- 15 April 2024UTC Cajamarca 2–0 Club Deportivo Los ChankasPrimera División
Leading scorers: UTC Cajamarca and Club Deportivo Los Chankas
UTC Cajamarca
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 38 league goals as a side.
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
GoalsAssists
- F. Torres95
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Club Deportivo Los Chankas (10th, with UTC Cajamarca 18th), while our numbers lean to UTC Cajamarca. UTC Cajamarca rate 0.50 in attack and 2.00 in defence, Club Deportivo Los Chankas 0.49 and 1.89 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives UTC Cajamarca the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for UTC Cajamarca against 1.18 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas. UTC Cajamarca's attack/defence rating is 0.5/2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.89 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas.
How the model reaches 43% for UTC Cajamarca to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for UTC Cajamarca to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, UTC Cajamarca's ratings change nothing and Club Deportivo Los Chankas's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- UTC Cajamarca's ratings44%±0
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas's ratings43%−1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
UTC Cajamarca at home · Club Deportivo Los Chankas away
League matches only, Primera División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: UTC Cajamarca 33, Club Deportivo Los Chankas 33.
UTC Cajamarca score most often in the 76–90 minute window (16 goals); Club Deportivo Los Chankas have let in 11 there.
Club Deportivo Los Chankas score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); UTC Cajamarca have let in 15 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.