Cusco
vs
ADT
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Cusco 1–0 ADT
The model makes it 52% Cusco, 26% draw, 22% ADT — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Cusco 1.74, ADT 0.93.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to Cusco: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Cusco's rating is built from 71 Primera División (Peru) matches and ADT's from 68, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Cusco are 6th on 51 points from 33 games; ADT are 15th on 31 points from 33 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- Cusco have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Atletico Grau.
- ADT are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Sporting Cristal.
- Last 6 meetings: Cusco 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 30 May 2026, ended ADT 1–2 Cusco.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Cusco vs ADT
Has the model earned this number?
Cusco at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Cusco vs ADT
Cusco
Primera División
- L0-3away to Atletico Grau6 November 2026
- L0-1Sport Boys1 November 2026
- W1-0away to Club Deportivo Los Chankas29 October 2026
- W3-1Sporting Cristal24 October 2026
- L1-2away to Sport Huancayo16 October 2026
ADT
Primera División
- D1-1Sporting Cristal7 November 2026
- D2-2away to Comerciantes Unidos3 November 2026
- W2-0UCV Moquegua28 October 2026
- D1-1away to Atletico Grau23 October 2026
- L1-2away to Club Deportivo Los Chankas16 October 2026
What these results say
- Cusco conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- ADT scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- ADT failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- ADT conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Peru Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Cusco | 33 | 16 | 3 | 14 | 46 | 47 | -1 | 51 |
| 15 | ADT | 33 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
ADT
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 2% today
From our Primera División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Cusco vs ADT
- 30 May 2026ADT 1–2 CuscoPrimera División
- 23 September 2025Cusco 0–2 ADTPrimera División
- 28 April 2025ADT 2–1 CuscoPrimera División
- 17 September 2024ADT 1–2 CuscoPrimera División
- 15 April 2024Cusco 3–2 ADTPrimera División
- 2 September 2023Cusco 1–0 ADTPrimera División
Leading scorers: Cusco and ADT
Cusco
GoalsAssists
- F. Callejo182
ADT
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 36 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
How the call on Cusco v ADT has moved
First published on 31 Oct at 57% / 25% / 18% (home / draw / away). After 5 updates it reads 52% / 26% / 22%: the biggest move is Cusco's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- Cusco win52%▼ −5
- Draw26%▲ +1
- ADT win22%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cusco the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Cusco against 0.93 for ADT. Cusco's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.73 for ADT.
How the model reaches 52% for Cusco to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Cusco to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Cusco's ratings add 5 points and ADT's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Cusco's ratings48%+5
- ADT's ratings52%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Cusco at home · ADT away
League matches only, Primera División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Cusco 33, ADT 33.
Cusco score most often in the 0–15 minute window (9 goals); ADT have let in 5 there.
ADT score most often in the 61–75 minute window (10 goals); Cusco have let in 10 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.