UCV Moquegua
vs
Atletico Grau
Primera División prediction
Our model says: UCV Moquegua 0–1 Atletico Grau
The model makes it 33% UCV Moquegua, 33% draw, 34% Atletico Grau — fair odds of 3.03, 3.03 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: UCV Moquegua 0.96, Atletico Grau 0.98.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 31%, under 2.5: 69%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
A tight game: UCV Moquegua and Atletico Grau are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. UCV Moquegua's rating is built from 33 Primera División (Peru) matches and Atletico Grau's from 68, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- UCV Moquegua are 16th on 30 points from 33 games; Atletico Grau are 14th on 37 points from 33 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- UCV Moquegua are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Universitario.
- Atletico Grau have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Cusco.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: UCV Moquegua vs Atletico Grau
Has the model earned this number?
Atletico Grau at 34%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into UCV Moquegua vs Atletico Grau
UCV Moquegua
Primera División
- D2-2away to Universitario9 November 2026
- D0-0Club Deportivo Los Chankas1 November 2026
- L0-2away to ADT28 October 2026
- L0-1Alianza Lima25 October 2026
- W1-0away to FC Cajamarca18 October 2026
Atletico Grau
Primera División
- W3-0Cusco6 November 2026
- L1-3Universitario1 November 2026
- L0-3away to Cienciano29 October 2026
- D1-1ADT23 October 2026
- L1-3away to Alianza Lima18 October 2026
What these results say
- UCV Moquegua failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for UCV Moquegua had two goals or fewer.
- Atletico Grau failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Grau scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Grau conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Peru Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | UCV Moquegua | 33 | 7 | 9 | 17 | 27 | 48 | -21 | 30 |
| 14 | Atletico Grau | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 37 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
UCV Moquegua
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 12% today
From our Primera División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: UCV Moquegua vs Atletico Grau
- 29 May 2026Atletico Grau 1–0 UCV MoqueguaPrimera División
Leading scorers: UCV Moquegua and Atletico Grau
UCV Moquegua
GoalsAssists
- E. Lastre85
Atletico Grau
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 32 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Grau the highest probability at 34%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.96 expected goals for UCV Moquegua against 0.98 for Atletico Grau. UCV Moquegua's attack/defence rating is 0.37/1.66 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.6 for Atletico Grau.
How the model reaches 34% for Atletico Grau to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Atletico Grau to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, UCV Moquegua's ratings add 2 points and Atletico Grau's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 34%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Both sides at this match's level28%−1
- UCV Moquegua's ratings30%+2
- Atletico Grau's ratings34%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
UCV Moquegua at home · Atletico Grau away
League matches only, Primera División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: UCV Moquegua 33, Atletico Grau 33.
UCV Moquegua score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Atletico Grau have let in 12 there.
Atletico Grau score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); UCV Moquegua have let in 11 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.