25 October 2026, 21:05 UTC

Alianza Valledupar vs Internacional de Bogota Primera A prediction & result

Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau, Valledupar
Referee: Edwin Ferney Trujillo Castro, Colombia
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Alianza Valledupar 1-0 Internacional de Bogota.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Alianza Valledupar, 28% draw, 31% Internacional de Bogota — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Alianza Valledupar at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Alianza Valledupar97%Draw3%Internacional de Bogota0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽M. Martinezassist: J. Lasso
31'
Jair Castillo
46'
49'
Dewar Victoria
51'
🔁C. Dajomeout: M. Angel Amaya Pena
🔁J. Castilloout: E. W. Meza Mercado
59'
🔁F. Pardoout: Y. Londono
59'
62'
🔁R. Julioout: M. Santamaria
62'
🔁F. Boneout: J. Caballero
70'
Miguel Pernia
72'
🔁F. Sanguinettiout: D. Duarte
72'
🔁R. Manjarresout: S. Girado
🔁M. Martinezout: C. Vergara
76'
🔁J. Munozout: J. E. Perez Balcazar
76'
🔁J. Viverosout: S. Quinones
86'
Yeiner Londoño
87'
Wiston Fernández
90+1'

Match stats — Alianza Valledupar vs Internacional de Bogota

54%Possession46%
12Shots4
5On target1
7Corners2
1.42xG0.26

Goals against chances

Alianza Valledupar1 from 1.42 xGabout what the chances were worth
Internacional de Bogota0 from 0.26 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Alianza Valledupar 4-1-4-1
  • 40E. BeltranG
  • 60Y. RosalesD
  • 3K. MorenoD
  • 5P. FrancoD
  • 32J. ViverosD
  • 33J. LassoM
  • 17F. PardoM
  • 55W. FernandezM
  • 7J. CastilloM
  • 8J. MunozM
  • 77M. MartinezF
Substitutes
  • 13A. Simancas
  • 18C. VergaraF
  • 2S. QuinonesD
  • 25J. E. Perez BalcazarM
  • 14C. VillegasF
  • 6E. W. Meza Mercado
  • 88L. PalaciosM
  • 27Y. LondonoM
  • 21S. NietoF
Coach: Flabio Torres
Internacional de Bogota 3-4-3
  • 1W. FarinezG
  • 20J. CastroD
  • 2C. VivasD
  • 26A. IrazoqueD
  • 25R. JulioM
  • 8D. S. Victoria PalaciosM
  • 24R. ManjarresM
  • 13M. PerniaM
  • 10F. BoneF
  • 7F. SanguinettiF
  • 11C. DajomeF
Substitutes
  • 12J. CarrascoG
  • 6M. Angel Amaya Pena
  • 14M. SantamariaM
  • 32J. PalomequeM
  • 9D. DuarteF
  • 23J. CaballeroF
  • 22S. GiradoF
  • 19Y. GarciaF
  • 18E. ArboledaF
Coach: Ricardo Valino

Form going into Alianza Valledupar vs Internacional de Bogota

Alianza Valledupar

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to Deportivo Pasto20 October 2026
  • D2-2Águilas Doradas9 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Deportivo Cali3 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Jaguares27 September 2026

Internacional de Bogota

Primera A

  • W2-1Fortaleza FC20 October 2026

What these results say

  • Alianza Valledupar scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Alianza Valledupar conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Alianza Valledupar had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Alianza Valledupar1953111833-1518
13Internacional de Bogota195862525023

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Alianza Valledupar vs Internacional de Bogota

  • 13 April 2026Internacional de Bogota 2–1 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
  • 24 October 2025Alianza Valledupar 2–0 Internacional de BogotaPrimera A
  • 3 May 2025Internacional de Bogota 0–2 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
  • 2 November 2024Internacional de Bogota 3–2 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
  • 15 April 2024Alianza Valledupar 0–3 Internacional de BogotaPrimera A
  • 23 August 2023Alianza Valledupar 1–0 Internacional de BogotaPrimera A

Leading scorers: Alianza Valledupar and Internacional de Bogota

Alianza Valledupar

No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.

Internacional de Bogota

GoalsAssists

  • F. Sanguinetti107

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Alianza Valledupar beat Internacional de Bogota 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Alianza Valledupar at 41%. The goal: M. Martinez 31' for Alianza Valledupar. Sent off: Dewar Victoria (Internacional de Bogota) 49'. On expected goals it finished 1.42–0.26.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Alianza Valledupar a 14.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 2.6% after a win, 15.7% after a draw, 29.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 2.6%, 12.1 points lower than before the match.

For Internacional de Bogota the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 4.0% going in: 9.7% after a win, 2.0% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at under 1%, 3.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.