25 October 2026, 20:30 UTC

Sport Boys vs FC Cajamarca Primera División prediction & result

Estadio Miguel Grau, Callao
Referee: Roberto Perez Gutierrez
Full time4 – 2

Final score: Sport Boys 4-2 FC Cajamarca.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Sport Boys, 27% draw, 24% FC Cajamarca — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sport Boys at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sport Boys99%Draw1%FC Cajamarca0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
⚽José Reinaldo Lugo Quiñónez
Federico Illanes
31'
•Christian Cueva
42'
⚽Christian Cueva (pen)
44'
⚽Christian Cuevaassist: Luis Urruti
45+1'
🔁Federico Illanesout: Miguel Trauco
45'
54'
⚽Brandon Palaciosassist: José Reinaldo Lugo Quiñónez
Pablo Erustes
57'
⚽Emilio Sabaassist: Christian Cueva
63'
73'
🔁José Mauricio Arrasco Calderónout: P. Cejas
🔁Christian Cuevaout: Gustavo Dulanto
75'
🔁Yuriel Celiout: Jostin Alarcon
75'
🔁Luis Urrutiout: Percy Liza
80'
⚽Jostin Alarconassist: Pablo Erustes
82'
85'
🔁Paulo Goyonecheout: Carlos Correa
85'
🔁Brandon Palaciosout: Michel Rasmussen
🔁Pablo Erustesout: Rolando Diaz
88'

Match stats — Sport Boys vs FC Cajamarca

59%Possession41%
16Shots13
5On target4
4Corners3
2xG1.16

Goals against chances

Sport Boys4 from 2.00 xGmore than the chances were worth
FC Cajamarca2 from 1.16 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sport Boys 4-2-3-1
  • 22D. MeliánG
  • 17E. SabaD
  • 3C. ZambranoD
  • 26H. RiojasD
  • 13M. LlontopD
  • 24O. MoraM
  • 5F. IllanesM
  • 99C. CuevaM
  • 77Y. CeliM
  • 11L. UrrutiM
  • 32P. ErustesF
Substitutes
  • 14R. DíazF
  • 55G. DulantoD
  • 4R. AlfaniD
  • 10J. AlarcónM
  • 21A. HuamánM
  • 30P. LizaF
  • 29N. LoyolaD
  • 61J. NolascoG
  • 47M. TraucoD
Coach: C. Desio
FC Cajamarca 4-2-3-1
  • 3J. MedinaG
  • 44Carlos Daniel Gómez CcasaniD
  • 21J. VegaD
  • 95Y. VílchezD
  • 4J. SotoD
  • 25P. GoyonecheM
  • 18Jefferson Gabriel Orejuela IzquierdoM
  • 20C. MezaM
  • 17B. PalaciosM
  • 11M. ArrascoM
  • 77J. LugoF
Substitutes
  • 8Valentino Ybrahin Sandoval SánchezF
  • 32P. AlegriaF
  • 12S. Aspajo CohenG
  • 88H. CamachoM
  • 9P. CejasF
  • 13C. CorreaM
  • 31S. EncisoM
  • 2A. PósitoD
  • 6M. RasmussenF
Coach: Santiago Acasiete

Form going into Sport Boys vs FC Cajamarca

Sport Boys

Primera División

  • L0-2away to Juan Pablo II College17 October 2026

FC Cajamarca

Primera División

  • L0-1UCV Moquegua18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Peru Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Sport Boys331210113735+242
17FC Cajamarca3387184665-1929

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sport Boys vs FC Cajamarca

  • 2 May 2026FC Cajamarca 3–2 Sport BoysPrimera División

Leading scorers: Sport Boys and FC Cajamarca

Sport Boys

No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 37 league goals as a side.

FC Cajamarca

GoalsAssists

  • M. Arrasco85
  • B. Palacios84

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sport Boys beat FC Cajamarca 4–2. The model had made a win for Sport Boys its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: José Reinaldo Lugo Quiñónez 13' for FC Cajamarca, Christian Cueva (penalty) 44' for Sport Boys, Christian Cueva 45+1' for Sport Boys, Brandon Palacios 54' for FC Cajamarca, Emilio Saba 63' for Sport Boys, Jostin Alarcon 82' for Sport Boys. On expected goals it finished 2.00–1.16.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Cajamarca a 18.1% chance to finish in the bottom two: 3.7% after a win, 15.8% after a draw, 25.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 25.0%, 6.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Sport Boys v FC Cajamarca has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 53% / 25% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 49% / 27% / 24%: the biggest move is Sport Boys's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Sport Boys win49%▼ −4
  2. Draw27%▲ +2
  3. FC Cajamarca win24%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.