25 October 2026, 02:15 UTC

Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pereira Primera A prediction & result

Estadio Palogrande, Manizales
Referee: J. Ortiz
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Once Caldas 1-1 Deportivo Pereira.

Before kick-off the model made it 58% Once Caldas, 26% draw, 16% Deportivo Pereira — fair odds of 1.72, 3.85 and 6.25.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Once Caldas at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Once Caldas98%Draw2%Deportivo Pereira0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁J. Quinonesout: D. Moreno
46'
A. Colorado
48'
57'
🔁E. Morenoout: J. A. Bermudez Correa
57'
🔁M. Perezout: M. Diaz
60'
S. Urrea
65'
🔁A. Plataout: Y. Quinones
69'
J. A. Bermudez Correa
J. Cardona
72'
🔁P. Gomezout: E. Torres
73'
⚽E. Torresassist: M. Barrios
81'
J. A. Zapata Ramirez
83'
🔁J. A. Zapata Ramirezout: J. Alvarado
83'
J. Patino
85'
85'
Y. Quinones
90'
🔁J. Largachaout: D. Ortiz
90'
⚽Y. Quinonesassist: J. A. Bermudez Correa
90+1'
S. Zuluaga
M. Zuleta
90+2'

Match stats — Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pereira

63%Possession37%
27Shots7
12On target2
12Corners0
2.07xG0.39

Goals against chances

Once Caldas1 from 2.07 xGless than the chances were worth
Deportivo Pereira1 from 0.39 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Once Caldas 4-2-3-1
  • 99Felipe ParraG
  • 22Juan David CuestaD
  • 2Jorge CardonaD
  • 30Daniel LondoñoD
  • 33Juan PatiñoD
  • 23Andres ColoradoM
  • 5Juan Pablo NietoM
  • 7Michael BarriosM
  • 42Jader QuinonesM
  • 9Pipe GómezM
  • 14Jefry ZapataF
Substitutes
  • 17Dayro MorenoF
  • 29Edwin TorresF
  • 15Jaime AlvaradoM
  • 12Jesús CamargoG
  • 18Jeider RiquettD
  • 16Juan CastañoD
  • 28Mateo ZuletaM
  • 19Tomas GarcíaM
  • 21Helieyker GuzmanF
Deportivo Pereira 4-4-2
  • 1Yimy GómezG
  • 20Jordy MonroyD
  • 2Sebastián UrreaD
  • 15Santiago AguilarD
  • 25Fabio DelgadoD
  • 7Anderson PlataM
  • 14Ederson MorenoM
  • 21Walmer PachecoM
  • 24Miguel PalaciosM
  • 18Marco PérezF
  • 11Jhon LargachaF
Substitutes
  • 5Jorge BermúdezM
  • 29Manuel Alejandro Diaz HernandezF
  • 13Yuber QuiñonesF
  • 6Danilo OrtizD
  • 33Samuel AtehortuaG
  • 34Santiago ÁlzateF
  • 23Tobias BovoneD
  • 16Eber MorenoD
  • 8Felipe MosqueraF

Form going into Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pereira

Once Caldas

Primera A

  • D1-1away to Millonarios21 October 2026

Deportivo Pereira

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0Chico20 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Junior14 October 2026
  • D0-0Deportivo Cali10 October 2026
  • L0-4away to Cucuta4 October 2026
  • L1-2Santa Fe29 September 2026

What these results say

  • Deportivo Pereira failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Once Caldas197752319+428
17Deportivo Pereira193881628-1217

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pereira

  • 10 April 2026Deportivo Pereira 0–0 Once CaldasPrimera A
  • 6 September 2025Once Caldas 1–0 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
  • 3 August 2025Deportivo Pereira 2–1 Once CaldasPrimera A
  • 22 March 2025Deportivo Pereira 1–1 Once CaldasPrimera A
  • 20 February 2025Once Caldas 3–1 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
  • 3 September 2024Deportivo Pereira 0–1 Once CaldasPrimera A

Leading scorers: Once Caldas and Deportivo Pereira

Once Caldas

GoalsAssists

  • D. Moreno171
  • J. Zapata133

Deportivo Pereira

No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Once Caldas and Deportivo Pereira drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Once Caldas at 58% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: E. Torres 81' for Once Caldas, Y. Quinones 90' for Deportivo Pereira. Sent off: S. Zuluaga (Deportivo Pereira) 90+1', M. Zuleta (Once Caldas) 90+2'. On expected goals it finished 2.07–0.39.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Once Caldas a 43.5% chance to finish in the top eight: 54.0% after a win, 26.3% after a draw, 14.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 26.3%, 17.2 points lower than before the match.

For Deportivo Pereira the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 38.3% going in: 12.9% after a win, 32.0% after a draw, 44.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 32.0%, 6.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.