25 October 2026, 02:30 UTC

Universitario vs Juan Pablo II College Primera División prediction & result

Estadio Monumental, Lima
Referee: Joel Alarcon
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Universitario 3-0 Juan Pablo II College.

Before kick-off the model made it 57% Universitario, 22% draw, 21% Juan Pablo II College — fair odds of 1.75, 4.55 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Universitario at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Universitario99%Draw1%Juan Pablo II College0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

52'
🔁Jack Carhuallanquiout: Jack·Duran
52'
🔁Janio Pósitoout: Mateo Rodríguez
58'
Pablo Miguez
⚽Edison Flores
60'
64'
🔁Erinson Ramirezout: C. Villanueva
64'
🔁Nilton Ramirezout: Héctor Bazán
🔁Edison Floresout: Lisandro Alzugaray
64'
⚽Gianluca Lapadulaassist: Lisandro Alzugaray
65'
70'
🔁Hugo Ancajimaout: Piero Antón
🔁César Ingaout: Bryan Reyna
75'
🔁Jairo Conchaout: Piero Quispe
76'
🔁Anderson Santamaríaout: Aldo Corzo
85'
🔁Gianluca Lapadulaout: José Rivera
85'
⚽Lisandro Alzugaray
87'

Match stats — Universitario vs Juan Pablo II College

70%Possession30%
30Shots2
11On target0
9Corners1
2.04xG0.12

Goals against chances

Universitario3 from 2.04 xGmore than the chances were worth
Juan Pablo II College0 from 0.12 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Universitario 3-4-1-2
  • 1D. RomeroG
  • 2C. FaraD
  • 3W. RiverosD
  • 4A. SantamaríaD
  • 24A. PoloM
  • 10H. CalcaterraM
  • 17J. ConchaM
  • 33C. IngaM
  • 19É. FloresM
  • 18G. LapadulaF
  • 20A. ValeraF
Substitutes
  • 15J. RequenaM
  • 11J. RiveraF
  • 25M. VargasG
  • 30Lisandro Joel AlzugarayF
  • 29A. CorzoD
  • 8H. FértoliM
  • 23J. MurrugarraM
  • 39P. QuispeM
  • 77B. ReynaF
Coach: F. Bustos
Juan Pablo II College 4-4-2
  • 23M. VegaG
  • 2H. AncajimaD
  • 3A. SánchezD
  • 60P. MíguezD
  • 31J. ToledoD
  • 18E. RamírezM
  • 14J. CarhuallanquiM
  • 8C. FloresM
  • 79J. GoicocheaM
  • 89J. PósitoF
  • 15N. RamírezF
Substitutes
  • 16Piero Alonso Antón CastilloD
  • 20H. BazánM
  • 28J. DuránM
  • 7A. HendricksF
  • 13Bairon Alexander Puño FrancoD
  • 12I. QuispeG
  • 97M. RodríguezF
  • 33M. AlmirónD
  • 71C. VillanuevaM
Coach: J. Araujo

Form going into Universitario vs Juan Pablo II College

Universitario

Primera División

  • W4-1away to Alianza Atletico18 October 2026

Juan Pablo II College

Primera División

  • W2-0Sport Boys17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Peru Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Universitario33171065939+2061
12Juan Pablo II College33118144859-1141

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Universitario vs Juan Pablo II College

  • 3 May 2026Juan Pablo II College 1–4 UniversitarioPrimera División
  • 5 October 2025Universitario 3–0 Juan Pablo II CollegePrimera División
  • 18 May 2025Juan Pablo II College 2–0 UniversitarioPrimera División

Leading scorers: Universitario and Juan Pablo II College

Universitario

GoalsAssists

  • A. Valera182
  • G. Lapadula94

Juan Pablo II College

No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 48 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Universitario beat Juan Pablo II College 3–0. The model had made a win for Universitario its most likely outcome, at 57%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Edison Flores 60' for Universitario, Gianluca Lapadula 65' for Universitario, Lisandro Alzugaray 87' for Universitario. On expected goals it finished 2.04–0.12.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Universitario a 60.9% chance to finish in the top two: 71.8% after a win, 49.7% after a draw, 38.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 71.8%, 10.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Universitario v Juan Pablo II College has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 55% / 23% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 57% / 22% / 21%: the biggest move is Universitario's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Universitario win57%▲ +2
  2. Draw22%▼ −1
  3. Juan Pablo II College win21%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.