Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Atletico Nacional 2-1 Independiente Medellin.
Before kick-off the model made it 60% Atletico Nacional, 23% draw, 17% Independiente Medellin — fair odds of 1.67, 4.35 and 5.88.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Colombian Primera A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Atletico Nacional at 60%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 34F. ArmaniG
- 6A. RomanD
- 3N. ParraD
- 16W. TesilloD
- 33S. VelasquezD
- 22E. CabreraM
- 21J. CampuzanoM
- 8M. UribeM
- 26F. MarinM
- 10E. CardonaF
- 23J. RodriguezF
- 25L. MarquinezG
- 20M. CascoD
- 4C. HaydarD
- 31X. RiosM
- 80J. ZapataM
- 19J. RengifoF
- 29A. SarmientoF
- 13N. RodriguezF
- 9A. MorelosF
- 1S. IchazoG
- 26E. Mena PereaD
- 39L. EscorciaD
- 19A. SimarraD
- 18F. FabraD
- 11Yony GonzalezM
- 6D. MorenoM
- 16H. LoboaM
- 20J. MontanoM
- 21A. MarteganiF
- 32C. LucumiF
- 25E. ChauxG
- 5J. VarelaD
- 4K. MantillaD
- 10D. CatanoM
- 14B. PerlazaM
- 31D. MorenoM
- 34K. KlingerM
- 9J. MedinaF
- 17G. MancillaF
Form going into Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin
Atletico Nacional
All competitions we cover
- W3-0Deportivo Pasto23 October 2026
- L0-1away to Cucuta20 October 2026
- W4-1away to Chico17 October 2026
- D0-0Deportes Tolima8 October 2026
- W3-1Junior1 October 2026
Independiente Medellin
All competitions we cover
- L0-2Once Caldas18 October 2026
- W2-1away to America de Cali12 October 2026
- L0-1Santa Fe6 October 2026
- D2-2Millonarios30 September 2026
- L0-2away to Junior27 September 2026
What these results say
- Independiente Medellin conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Independiente Medellin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 38 | 18 | +20 | 40 |
| 6 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 25 | +4 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin
- 15 October 2026Atletico Nacional 3–2 Independiente MedellinCopa Colombia
- 12 April 2026Independiente Medellin 2–3 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
- 18 December 2025Independiente Medellin 0–1 Atletico NacionalCopa Colombia
- 13 December 2025Atletico Nacional 0–0 Independiente MedellinCopa Colombia
- 4 December 2025Atletico Nacional 2–1 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
- 23 November 2025Independiente Medellin 0–0 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
Leading scorers: Atletico Nacional and Independiente Medellin
Atletico Nacional
GoalsAssists
- A. Morelos166
- A. Sarmiento117
- E. Cardona104
Independiente Medellin
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 29 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atletico Nacional beat Independiente Medellin 2–1. The model had made a win for Atletico Nacional its most likely outcome, at 60%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: A. Simarra 29' for Independiente Medellin, E. Cardona 53' for Atletico Nacional, A. Sarmiento 73' for Atletico Nacional. On expected goals it finished 1.69–1.58.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Atletico Nacional a 53.7% chance to finish top of the Clausura: 64.7% after a win, 37.5% after a draw, 30.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 64.7%, 11 points higher than before the match.
For Independiente Medellin the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 80.6% going in: 95.5% after a win, 85.3% after a draw, 76.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 76.2%, 4.4 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Atletico Nacional v Independiente Medellin has moved
First published on 11 Oct at 58% / 24% / 18% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 60% / 23% / 17%: the biggest move is Atletico Nacional's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Atletico Nacional win60%▲ +2
- Draw23%▼ −1
- Independiente Medellin win17%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.