25 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Fortaleza FC vs Deportivo Cali Primera A prediction & result

Estadio Metropolitano de Techo
Referee: A. Ospina
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Fortaleza FC 1-1 Deportivo Cali.

Before kick-off the model made it 27% Fortaleza FC, 32% draw, 41% Deportivo Cali — fair odds of 3.70, 3.13 and 2.44.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Deportivo Cali at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Fortaleza FC2%Draw94%Deportivo Cali4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Sebastian Herrera
5'
14'
⚽N. Benedetti (pen)
18'
Edwin Velasco
42'
Gustavo Cuéllar
⚽F. Pulicastro
45'
46'
🔁K. Sandovalout: D. Giraldo
🔁J. Herreraout: J. Garcia
68'
70'
🔁N. Benedettiout: E. Reynoso
70'
🔁E. Belloout: J. Martinez
76'
🔁Titiout: J. Dinenno
🔁S. Navarroout: B. Mejia
80'
🔁F. Pulicastroout: T. Wilke
80'
Brandon Mejía
81'
🔁J. Salasout: D. Ramirez
83'
🔁S. Vivasout: E. Cabezas
83'
David Ramírez
86'

Match stats — Fortaleza FC vs Deportivo Cali

50%Possession50%
15Shots11
3On target3
6Corners2
0.72xG1.27

Goals against chances

Fortaleza FC1 from 0.72 xGabout what the chances were worth
Deportivo Cali1 from 1.27 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Fortaleza FC 4-3-3
  • 1W. BarlasinaG
  • 16J. CajaresD
  • 6Y. DiazD
  • 5J. Medina ObandoD
  • 15S. CueroD
  • 8S. NavarroM
  • 14L. PicoM
  • 28S. VivasM
  • 19F. PulicastroF
  • 9J. HerreraF
  • 24J. SalasF
Substitutes
  • 12C. SantanderG
  • 3D. RamirezD
  • 4E. CabezasD
  • 10J. VelasquezM
  • 32M. Vazquez
  • 13B. MejiaM
  • 25J. GarciaM
  • 29T. WilkeF
  • 7I. MontanoF
Coach: Diego Arias
Deportivo Cali 4-1-4-1
  • 1P. GalleseG
  • 16K. SandovalD
  • 12J. C. Caldera AlvisD
  • 4F. AlvarezD
  • 28E. VelascoD
  • 5G. CuellarM
  • 14A. ManyomaM
  • 15L. ChaverraM
  • 21N. BenedettiM
  • 20E. BelloM
  • 23TitiF
Substitutes
  • 38A. RodriguezG
  • 26J. TelloD
  • 2J. MoyaD
  • 10E. ReynosoM
  • 8D. GiraldoM
  • 29K. CaicedoM
  • 36M. CorreaM
  • 9J. DinennoF
  • 19J. MartinezF
Coach: Rafael Dudamel

Form going into Fortaleza FC vs Deportivo Cali

Fortaleza FC

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Internacional de Bogota20 October 2026
  • D1-1Millonarios9 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Deportivo Pasto4 October 2026
  • D2-2Deportes Tolima27 September 2026
  • L1-4Junior20 September 2026

Deportivo Cali

Primera A

  • W3-0away to Llaneros21 October 2026

What these results say

  • Fortaleza FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Fortaleza FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Fortaleza FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Fortaleza FC191991729-1212
3Deportivo Cali199822812+1635

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Fortaleza FC vs Deportivo Cali

  • 1 March 2026Deportivo Cali 1–1 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
  • 25 July 2025Deportivo Cali 1–1 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
  • 9 February 2025Fortaleza FC 1–0 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
  • 25 September 2024Deportivo Cali 3–2 Fortaleza FCCopa Colombia
  • 18 September 2024Fortaleza FC 1–0 Deportivo CaliCopa Colombia
  • 30 July 2024Fortaleza FC 2–1 Deportivo CaliPrimera A

Leading scorers: Fortaleza FC and Deportivo Cali

Fortaleza FC

No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.

Deportivo Cali

GoalsAssists

  • S. Rodríguez113

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Fortaleza FC and Deportivo Cali drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Deportivo Cali at 41% and given a draw 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: N. Benedetti (penalty) 14' for Deportivo Cali, F. Pulicastro 45' for Fortaleza FC. Sent off: Brandon Mejía (Fortaleza FC) 81'. On expected goals it finished 0.72–1.27.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Fortaleza FC a 68.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 43.7% after a win, 72.1% after a draw, 81.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 72.1%, 3.8 points higher than before the match.

For Deportivo Cali the question was the chance to finish top of the Clausura, 10.8% going in: 17.9% after a win, 5.4% after a draw, 3.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 5.4%, 5.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Fortaleza FC v Deportivo Cali has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 29% / 32% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 27% / 32% / 41%: the biggest move is Fortaleza FC's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Fortaleza FC win27%▼ −2
  2. Draw32%=
  3. Deportivo Cali win41%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.