Clausura - 19 · 12 November 2026, 23:00 UTC

Deportivo Pasto vs Junior Primera A prediction & result

Estadio Departamental Libertad, Pasto
Referee: Diego Alejandro Ruiz Casas, Colombia
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Deportivo Pasto 0-1 Junior.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Deportivo Pasto, 29% draw, 40% Junior — fair odds of 3.23, 3.45 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Deportivo Pasto 1.11, Junior 1.35.

Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Deportivo Pasto vs Junior

50%
Both teams to score
45%
Over 2.5 goals
55%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 13%0-1 11%0-0 9%

Has the model earned this number?

Junior at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Deportivo Pasto0%Draw5%Junior95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

20'
C. Perez
J. Revollo
21'
31'
A. Shmalbach
🔁H. Goyesout: T. Blandon
37'
46'
🔁D. Villarrealout: B. Castrillon
46'
🔁A. Shmalbachout: J. Pena
🔁J. Arboledaout: L. Medina
59'
🔁J. Solarteout: F. Martinez
59'
🔁E. Garciaout: E. Gomez
59'
59'
🔁C. Barriosout: G. Paiva
60'
⚽C. Perezassist: K. Perez
73'
G. Celis
74'
G. Paiva
🔁J. Revolloout: D. Chillambo
80'
80'
🔁L. Murielout: J. Canchimbo
80'
🔁K. Perezout: F. S. Angel Bernal
88'
F. S. Angel Bernal

Match stats — Deportivo Pasto vs Junior

39%Possession61%
16Shots13
5On target4
6Corners6
0.62xG1.09

Goals against chances

Deportivo Pasto0 from 0.62 xGless than the chances were worth
Junior1 from 1.09 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Deportivo Pasto 4-4-2
  • 13Luis MarquínezG
  • 41Juan ArboledaD
  • 4Juan RevolloD
  • 44Samuel PortesD
  • 27Hervin GoyesD
  • 26Heiler MorenoM
  • 38Michael MosqueraM
  • 24Kevin SantacruzM
  • 31Édgar GarcíaM
  • 22José SolarteF
  • 19Patrick PreciadoF
Substitutes
  • 28Tomás BlandónF
  • 30Luis MedinaD
  • 42Eder GómezF
  • 35Frank MartínezM
  • 37Didier ChillamboF
  • 21Yinier PereaM
  • 43Juan David Quintero PantojaM
  • 45Juan RoseroF
  • 1Cristian ValderramaG
Junior 4-3-3
  • 1Mauro SilveiraG
  • 38Andrés SchmalbachD
  • 24Jean Carlos PestañaD
  • 16Carlos PerezD
  • 99Fabian CorreaD
  • 7Harold RiveraM
  • 28Guillermo CelisM
  • 6Dilan VillarealM
  • 77Cristian BarriosF
  • 10Luis MurielF
  • 18Kevin PérezF
Substitutes
  • 98Jermein PeñaD
  • 88Bryan CastrillónF
  • 9Guillermo PaivaF
  • 80Fabián ÁngelM
  • 21Joel CanchimboF
  • 30Jefersson MartínezG
  • 23Pablo OrtízD
  • 25Déiber CaicedoF
  • 14Juan David RíosM

Form going into Deportivo Pasto vs Junior

Deportivo Pasto

Primera A

  • L0-5away to Santa Fe8 November 2026
  • W2-0Jaguares3 November 2026
  • L1-2away to Bucaramanga31 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Deportes Tolima26 October 2026

Junior

Primera A

  • W2-0Cucuta10 November 2026
  • L2-3away to Llaneros31 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Chico28 October 2026
  • W1-0Águilas Doradas24 October 2026

What these results say

  • Deportivo Pasto scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Junior scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Junior had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Deportivo Pasto1943121330-1715
14Junior195772627-122

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Deportivo Pasto vs Junior

  • 3 May 2026Junior 4–3 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
  • 29 September 2025Junior 2–0 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
  • 12 April 2025Deportivo Pasto 3–3 JuniorPrimera A
  • 29 August 2024Deportivo Pasto 1–0 JuniorPrimera A
  • 8 February 2024Junior 2–0 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
  • 13 August 2023Junior 0–0 Deportivo PastoPrimera A

Leading scorers: Deportivo Pasto and Junior

Deportivo Pasto

No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Junior

GoalsAssists

  • L. Muriel163

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Junior won 1–0 at Deportivo Pasto. The goal: C. Perez 60' for Junior. Sent off: G. Paiva (Junior) 74'. On expected goals it finished 0.62–1.09.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Deportivo Pasto a 76.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 29.2% after a win, 100.0% after a draw, 100.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 100.0%, 23.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Deportivo Pasto Junior
0.53 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.78
1.7 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.45
1.11 Model expected goals (this match) 1.35

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Junior the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Deportivo Pasto against 1.35 for Junior. Deportivo Pasto's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.45 for Junior.

How the model reaches 40% for Junior to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Junior to win. Then home advantage takes away 8 points, Deportivo Pasto's ratings add 6 points and Junior's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 40%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground35%
  2. Home advantage27%−8
  3. Deportivo Pasto's ratings33%+6
  4. Junior's ratings40%+7

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.